The Regime Switch of Capital Flows: How the China-U.S. Yield Spread Drives Global Capital Reallocation in a Tiered Manner— Exhaustive Evidence Based on TIC Panel Data, ETF Flows, and China's Cross-Border Data
本文提出并实证验证了一种资本流动的“政体转换理论”(Regime Switch Theory),证明了中美利差作为一个结构性阈值,决定了全球资本配置是由美国市场因素驱动,还是通过中国特定变量获得独立的定价权,从而将多样化的资本流动现象统一于一个“统一场”框架之中。