A finite element continuous data assimilation framework for a Navier--Stokes--Cahn--Hilliard system

This paper develops and analyzes a continuous data assimilation framework using a nudging-based approach and a capped finite element splitting scheme to recover trajectories of a coupled Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard system with an auxiliary field from coarse spatial observations, demonstrating its effectiveness in synchronizing mismatched initial conditions through numerical experiments.

Tianyu Sun2026-03-11🔢 math

Geometric early warning indicator from stochastic separatrix structure in a random two-state ecosystem model

This paper proposes a robust geometric early warning indicator based on the width of the stochastic separatrix in a two-state ecosystem model, which successfully predicts rapid under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic where conventional critical slowing down signals fail due to strong noise or limited data.

Yuzhu Shi, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Sergei Petrovskii, Valerio Lucarini2026-03-11🔢 math