earth_science papers | Gist.Science

Modeling the Impacts of Demand Drivers on Future Building Thermal Energy Demand in Chinese Cities

This study employs an integrated modeling approach to demonstrate that while China's urban building floor area will continue to grow through 2060, future thermal energy demand will vary significantly across its 336 cities due to diverse socioeconomic and climate drivers, necessitating tailored policies that leverage compact urban development and energy efficiency to mitigate the substantial shifts caused by global warming.

Xiangwen Fu, Shangwei Liu, Denise L. Mauzerall2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

Regression based Prediction and Analysis of Rainfall Data for Heavy Rainfall and Drought of Sikta Weather Station-Banke District Nepal

This paper evaluates five regression-based machine learning models using historical data from Nepal's Sikta Weather Station to identify XGBoost as the most accurate predictor for forecasting heavy rainfall and drought, thereby supporting improved agricultural planning and water resource management in rural areas.

Yogesh Sharma2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

Tipping Points in Coral Reef Ecosystems: Interplay of Carbon Cycle Disruption and Ocean Warming

This study employs coupled nonlinear differential equations and deep learning to model the interplay between carbon cycle disruption and ocean warming, revealing critical tipping points and bifurcation mechanisms that determine whether coral reef ecosystems face extinction or potential recovery.

Pooja Rani, Parimita Roy2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

Data quality remains consistent between volunteer scientific background, training and experience levels, while single-use pollution detectability varies in trash free trails citizen science surveys

This study demonstrates that Trash Free Trails citizen science volunteers produce consistent and accurate single-use pollution survey data regardless of their experience, training, or scientific background, although detectability varies significantly by item type and potential improvements to training resources could further enhance categorization accuracy.

Jasmine R. Scott-Dickins, Heather Friendship-Kay, Martyn Kurr2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

Educational inequalities in heat-related mortality across Belgian districts

This study of Belgian adults aged 60 and over from 2002 to 2019 reveals a significant educational gradient in heat-related mortality, where individuals with lower educational attainment face disproportionately higher risks during extreme heat events, highlighting the need for targeted policies addressing individual-level vulnerabilities rather than geographic factors alone.

Emmanuelle Kuijt, Bruno Masquelier, Wim Thiery2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

A country-sector dataset of environmental intensity and geographic variability across industrial activities

This paper presents a harmonized dataset of direct, supply-chain, and systemic environmental intensity for 6,781 sectors across 44 countries and five Rest-of-World regions, utilizing thirteen indicators to demonstrate that while both sector characteristics and geographic context significantly influence environmental performance, sector effects account for a larger share of the observed variation.

Osama Diab2026-07-15

📄 earth_science

Simulating deep convective plumes in the framework of a Quasi-Non-Hydrostatic modelling: a heuristic approach

This paper proposes a heuristic "Quasi-Non-Hydrostatic" (QNH) modeling framework that preserves horizontal diffusion of vertical velocity to realistically simulate deep convective plumes in regional ocean models, offering a computationally efficient compromise between standard hydrostatic approximations and full non-hydrostatic systems.

Pierre Garreau2026-07-15

📄 earth_science

A graph-matrix hybrid approach for deep temporalisation in time-explicit LCA

This paper introduces Trails, an open-source graph-matrix hybrid method that enables deep temporalisation in time-explicit life cycle assessment by propagating year-specific temporal dynamics throughout entire supply chains, demonstrating significant impacts on cumulative environmental scores and emission timing compared to static or foreground-only approaches.

Romain Sacchi, Tom Terlouw, Arthur Jakobs, Karin Treyer, Alvaro Hahn-Menacho, Christian Bauer2026-07-15

📄 earth_science

Thinning, acceleration and calving of Petermann Glacier, northern Greenland

Satellite observations reveal that Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland is undergoing rapid thinning, acceleration, and a major calving event driven by anomalously warm ocean waters and reduced sea ice, signaling a dynamic imbalance that threatens significant sea-level rise.

Kate Briggs, Malcolm McMillan, Anna Hogg, Karla Boxall, Adam Garbo, Anna Crawford, Molly Hammond, Benjamin Wallis, Clare (…)2026-07-15

📄 earth_science

Rising transnational economic risks of potential flood-induced outages at global fossil-fuelled power plants in the past decade

This study quantifies the rising transnational economic risks of flood-induced outages at global fossil-fuel power plants between 2015 and 2024, revealing that expected annual damages nearly doubled to €8.75 billion primarily due to intensified supply-chain propagation rather than physical exposure alone, with foreign losses increasing from 31.4% to 61.6% of the total.

Jiaju Lin, Shuo Wang, Bingkun Wang, Miming Zhang, Chao Zhang, Yurong Ouyang, Xiongzhi Xue2026-07-15

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