Explainable Machine Learning for Bio-regional Drought Prediction in South Australia
This study presents an explainable machine learning framework using XGBoost and Temporal Attention LSTM models to forecast drought severity across six South Australian IBRA subregions with high accuracy, revealing that lagged SPI-12 and rainfall anomalies are dominant predictors and mapping the six-year propagation of the Millennium Drought from the Murray Scroll Belt to the Eyre Mallee.