From radiative signal to early warning: the integrated IRIS index for detecting, explaining and projecting intraseasonal rainfall breaks in the Sahel (1992–2050)
This study critically evaluates the Sahel Integrated Radiative Index (IRIS) as a potential early-warning tool for intraseasonal rainfall breaks, finding it to be a physically grounded state descriptor with limited predictive skill due to inherent rainfall stochasticity and a projected climate signal too weak to distinguish from natural variability by 2050.