60 papers
This paper develops self-normalization-based structural break tests for predictive quantile and CoVaR regressions that remain valid regardless of predictor stationarity, thereby enabling robust detection of changes in forecasting power for risk and systemic risk models.
This paper establishes general conditions for the existence of equilibrium in multi-principal mechanism design problems with strategic spillovers by introducing a novel approach that tracks both truthful outcome distributions and the sets of distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby overcoming the discontinuities that previously prevented equilibrium existence.
This paper introduces the Sustainable Exploitation Equilibrium (SEE) as a refinement for dynamic games with irreversible failure, demonstrating that when survival-preserving actions exist, equilibria leading to collapse are sequentially irrational and the unique renegotiation-stable outcome maximizes the exploiter's value while ensuring the system's survival.
This paper employs stochastic modeling and empirical analysis of Chinese provincial data to demonstrate how monetary policy, innovation, and labor market fluctuations interact with heterogeneous shocks to shape international trade dynamics, revealing that optimal strategies should prioritize dynamic trade pattern transitions over static comparative advantages.
This study employs an adaptive robust optimization framework to demonstrate that incorporating worst-case regional "Dunkelflaute" events into European electricity planning reveals nonlinear cost increases and a shift toward long-duration hydrogen storage and load shedding as event severity grows, highlighting the critical need for coordinated cross-border infrastructure and geographically balanced renewable deployment to ensure system resilience.
This paper provides a formal proof that the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator for binary choice models yields a consistent estimate of the slope coefficient under conditions similar to those identified by Manski, thereby resolving a long-standing gap in the theoretical justification for using logistic regression in such contexts.
This paper characterizes margin-based voting rules by proving they are equivalent to rules satisfying the "Preferential Equality" axiom, which ensures that voters' identical pairwise preferences are treated with equal normative weight regardless of the voter's identity.
This paper proposes a robust identification approach to derive sharp bounds on the causal effects of school assignment despite strategic preference misreporting, demonstrating significant heterogeneity in graduation outcomes using data from Chile's university matching system.
This study reveals that ambiguity regarding data leak probabilities, rather than known risks, significantly reduces user adoption of personalized AI, highlighting a critical demand for transparency institutions to mitigate privacy concerns.
This paper unifies the analysis of risk aversion in auctions by demonstrating that while greater risk aversion increases bidding in first-price auctions under specific payoff conditions, it decreases bidding in second-price auctions with a known outside option, with these bid-level effects translating directly into equilibrium comparative statics.
This paper introduces the sampling logit equilibrium (SLE), a stationary concept for population games where agents use finite samples of opponents' plays to inform logit-based decisions, demonstrating that large-sample behavior approximates a logit equilibrium in a virtual game with payoff distortions caused by sampling noise.
This paper reframes the reduction of complex labor and the transformation problem as defining a bounded feasible set of value distributions within a physical-production network, demonstrating that classical macro-aggregates can be simultaneously satisfied without violating physical reproduction constraints, a finding empirically validated using China's 2023 input-output data.
This paper proposes a framework for modeling how agents with uncertain causal beliefs update those beliefs based on feedback from their utility-driven choices, ultimately defining a steady state where the observed outcomes of optimal actions are consistent with the agent's current causal model.
This paper presents an analytically tractable model of heterogeneous workers and firms with one-to-many sorting to demonstrate how market efficiency shocks that favor productive firms drive business cycles and shape the cyclical dynamics of wage and productivity distributions.
This paper characterizes a family of geometric rules for intergenerational income transfers in an infinite stream by deriving them from axioms of consistency, continuity, independence, feasibility, and scale invariance.
This paper establishes theoretical upper bounds on the ratio of the cost of time variability to the cost of time within an expected utility framework, demonstrating that for quadratic utility the ratio is at most half the squared coefficient of variation, thereby providing a data-light benchmark for assessing the economic significance of reliability improvements in mobility services.
This paper identifies and corrects a bug in the code used by Erdil & Ergin (2008) to compute stable improvement cycles, revealing that while their theoretical findings remain valid, the actual fraction of students benefiting from tie-breaking is slightly lower and their average rank improvement is slightly higher than originally reported.
This paper proposes a new confidence interval for the autoregressive parameter that maintains robust coverage regardless of the initial condition and conditional heteroskedasticity, while incurring only a minimal cost in interval length when standard assumptions hold.
This paper analyzes a multidimensional cheap talk game where a receiver can verify a single state dimension, identifying influential equilibria in which the sender reveals the highest state components and the receiver checks one of them, with the sender benefiting from communication only if such an equilibrium is preferred to the no-communication outcome.
This paper introduces the concept of weighted garbling to define a new information order on experiments, characterizing it through posterior belief supports and demonstrating its equivalence to dominance in static decision problems (via a fixed fraction of value) and specific stopping time problems.