Quantifying the Axis Shift: Agile Statecraft, Systemic Hedging, and Spatial Alignment of Turkey
By applying Neural Additive Vector Autoregression to 22 years of data, this study concludes that Turkey's geopolitical axis shift is a structurally self-reinforcing process driven primarily by path-locked spatial alignment, with visit frequency and export dependency identified as the only statistically significant non-autoregressive causal factors at the dyadic level.