📈 Category

econ

1836 papers

📈 economics

Was the Boom Exhausted from Within? Sectoral Sequencing and Real-Time Evidence from U.S. Recessions

This paper utilizes a comprehensive real-time archive of U.S. economic data to challenge the Austrian business cycle theory's prediction of a specific sectoral sequencing during credit reversals, finding that while capital-goods sectors react differently than aggregates, the proposed ordering is not consistently observed in real-time data and the resulting sectoral signals lack sufficient specificity to reliably distinguish recessions from arbitrary dates.

Alejandro Perez y Soto-Dominguez, Juan Manuel Candelo Viafara, Diana Rueda Duarte2026-08-24
📈 economics

AI-Driven Governance for Smart Construction and Sustainable Cities: An Integrated Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Framework

This chapter proposes an integrated science, technology, and innovation policy framework that treats AI-driven smart construction as a socio-technical system, outlining a strategic roadmap to align technological capabilities with governance, human capital, and sustainability goals to ensure equitable and effective urban development.

Hooman Shababi2026-08-24
📈 economics

How Local Should an AVM Be? Spatial Resolution, Market Regionalization in Automated Valuation Models

This paper reframes the locality of Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) as a partial-pooling problem involving spatial resolution, market regionalization, and external anchors, demonstrating through a comprehensive analysis of Korean commercial property transactions that while an optimal spatial resolution exists and regionalization improves accuracy, these mechanisms are only partially interchangeable and external anchors can significantly alter model selection and performance.

Dahoon Kim2026-08-24
📈 economics

Shocks in the Chain: How Exchange Rate Volatility Disrupts Value-Added Trade

This paper utilizes a Panel VAR framework with GARCH-based volatility measures to demonstrate that exchange rate volatility disproportionately and persistently disrupts foreign and re-imported domestic value-added components of global value chains compared to directly absorbed value-added, highlighting the critical need for macro-stabilization policies and hedging instruments for deeply integrated economies.

Kaveri Deb, William R. Hauk2026-08-24
📈 economics

Gold as a Financial Network: The Financialization of Gold through ETFs, Mining Equities and Tokenized Assets

This paper utilizes a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive framework to demonstrate that gold has evolved from a physical commodity into a tightly interconnected financial network, where price discovery and shock transmission have shifted toward exchange-traded and tokenized assets, with GLD acting as the primary net transmitter and physical gold as a net receiver.

Arif Billah Dar, Isha Kumari, Safika Praveen Sheikh2026-08-24
📈 economics

Rural Food (In)security, Out-migration and Remittance Nexus: Evidence from Rural Mid-Hills of Nepal

This study of rural households in Nepal's mid-hills reveals that out-migration and remittance inflows paradoxically increase food insecurity by depleting agricultural labor and failing to provide consistent financial support, necessitating policy interventions focused on productive remittance use and agricultural market development.

Ishwor Barshila, Katsuhito Fuyuki, Eustadius Francis Magezi, Sridhar Thapa2026-08-24
📈 economics

Rebalancing Advertising-Financed Media Markets in the Digital Era: A Recursive-Dynamic CGE Analysis

This paper employs a recursive-dynamic CGE model calibrated for Türkiye to demonstrate that while direct advertising reallocation significantly boosts traditional media output at a modest cost to the digital sector, the optimal balance between cultural financing and digital opportunity costs is determined by instrument design—specifically through levy-recycling and revenue-neutral hybrid mechanisms—rather than the intensity of transfers.

Kamil TASCI2026-08-24