📈 economics

Natural Disasters and Electoral Consequences: Evidence on Voter Preferences and Participation from U.S. Presidential Elections

This study analyzes U.S. presidential elections from 1996 to 2020 and finds that severe natural disasters significantly reduce incumbent-party vote share through voter preference shifts rather than turnout changes, with federal disaster declarations and partisan alignment between the president and governor playing key roles in mitigating these electoral losses.

Chi-Young Choi, Ilan Noy, Ashish Sedai2026-07-10
📈 economics

Financing Costs, Credit and Capital Formation in Albania: Integrated Reconstruction after Three Tests of the i-I Model

This paper employs an ARDL/UECM model on Albanian quarterly data from 2006 to 2025 to demonstrate that while financing costs significantly negatively impact capital formation, the credit channel reflects leverage and balance sheet stress rather than pure funding availability, highlighting the complexities of monetary transmission in a bank-based, euroized economy.

ADMIR MULAJ2026-07-10
📈 economics

Attention Without Estimation: Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models versus Long-Memory Econometrics in Realized Volatility Forecasting

This paper establishes a rigorous theoretical and empirical framework comparing zero-shot time series foundation models against classical long-memory econometric benchmarks for realized volatility forecasting, finding that while foundation models outperform GARCH and EWMA, they ultimately compete closely with HAR-family models that capture most of the exploitable signal in volatility data.

Jayachandiran U, Janani Giridharan2026-07-10
📈 economics

Environmental Regulatory Disparities and the Spatial Reallocation of Factors: Evidence from China’s National Air Quality Monitoring Network

This study leverages China's phased air quality monitoring network rollout as a quasi-natural experiment to demonstrate that urban–county regulatory disparities trigger a significant spatial reallocation of firms and labor from monitored urban cores to less-regulated county peripheries, ultimately reshaping regional economic landscapes through cumulative factor transfer.

zongwen xu, xiaoxue hu, Maozai Tain2026-07-10
📈 economics

Development stage shapes economic growth dynamics in developing and developed economies

This study analyzes 140 nations from 1990 to 2020 to demonstrate that economic growth drivers differ significantly by development stage, with developing economies relying primarily on capital formation and trade openness, while developed economies depend on human capital and foreign direct investment due to diminishing returns on physical capital.

Sheikh Abdul Kader, Nurul Mohammad Zayed, Md. Zahirul Islam, Vitalii Nitsenko, Ilona Bartuseviciene, Tetiana Dugar, Stan (…)2026-07-10
📈 economics

Making Sense of Mixed Signals: The Impact of (In)consistent Performance Feedback on Corporate Digital Technology Innovation

Drawing on behavioral theory and the attention-based view, this study reveals that while below-aspiration performance and inconsistent feedback differentially drive firms to pursue either mitigation or adaptation in digital technology innovation, these effects are significantly moderated by the quantity and stability of CEO attention.

Xiaotong Huo, Xiaoyu Wu, Shuyang Wang, Huan Shi, Xinran Hu2026-07-10