📈 economics

Forecasting Sparse Airline Demand for Revenue Management: Hierarchical Count Models and Fare-Sensitive Premium-Cabin Capacity Sharing

This paper proposes a hierarchical exposure-adjusted Poisson–Gamma model to improve sparse airline demand forecasting and derives a fare-sensitive seat-protection rule for premium-cabin capacity sharing, demonstrating through simulations that this approach significantly reduces revenue regret compared to traditional benchmarks, especially when fare ratios are high.

Irakli Gudavadze2026-10-16
📈 economics

Expiring without displacing? Evidence from the first wave of LIHTC affordability exits

This paper finds that while the expiration of Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) affordability restrictions is common and driven by market conditions, it results in only modest rent declines in weak markets without significantly displacing low-income residents or altering neighborhood demographics, suggesting that preservation efforts should prioritize areas with the largest rent gaps.

Simon Poltak Hamonangan Hutabarat, Irfan Yulianto2026-10-16
📈 economics

Quantum technology adoption in Japanese industry: prevalence, application interests, timelines, and barriers

Based on a census-style survey of all Japanese listed firms adjusted for response bias, this study reveals that while nearly 60% of companies express interest in quantum technologies, concrete adoption remains rare due to talent shortages and indecision, highlighting a critical need for business demonstrations and partnership brokering over mere financial support.

KAZUYA TAIRA, Yusuke Kodaira, Emi Kamada, Osamu Kamatani, Yusuke Kobayashi, Miyuki Imada2026-10-16
📈 economics

Delayed Informalisation in India’s Post-COVID Labour Market: Evidence from Pooled Repeated Cross-Sections of the Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2017-18 to 2023-24

Using pooled Periodic Labour Force Survey data from 2017–2024, this study reveals that India's post-pandemic labour market recovery was characterized by "delayed informalisation," where informal employment significantly increased during the 2021–23 recovery period—particularly among low-educated and socially disadvantaged workers—rather than immediately following the 2020 shock, highlighting the need for targeted policies to address job quality and security.

Anupam Hazra2026-10-16
📈 economics

The Duration Gap: Value-at-Risk, Interest-Rate Swaps and the 2026 Losses of Chile’s Most Conservative Pension Fund

This paper analyzes the 2026 ten-per-cent real loss in Chile's most conservative pension fund caused by a dramatic increase in exposure to US interest rates via receive-fixed swaps, demonstrating that standard volatility-based Value-at-Risk models failed to detect this persistent drift while an exposure-adjusted measure successfully captured the risk, thereby validating the regulator's subsequent shift toward stress-based derivatives limits.

Alfredo Merlet2026-10-16
📈 economics

Do Low-Carbon Transportation Policies Spur Green Innovation? Causal Evidence from Pilot Cities for New Energy Vehicles in China

Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach on Chinese city data, this study provides causal evidence that the New Energy Vehicle demonstration policy significantly boosted green innovation by approximately 9–10% through mechanisms such as demand expansion, fiscal support, industrial agglomeration, and infrastructure development, with effects varying by regional and industrial characteristics.

Jiawei Ma2026-10-16
📈 economics

Impact of global economic uncertainty on illicit financial flows in sub-Saharan Africa

This study utilizes robust econometric methods on data from 2000–2023 to demonstrate that global economic uncertainty significantly drives illicit financial flows in Sub-Saharan Africa, while per capita growth mitigates them, and reveals that trade openness, resource abundance, and even political stability can paradoxically encourage such outflows due to region-specific institutional mechanisms.

Marius Bendoma, José Claude Nyamou Mokompea2026-10-16