econ papers | Gist.Science

Macroeconomic Predictability and Machine Learning in REIT Returns: Out-of-Sample Evidence and Property-Sector Heterogeneity

This study finds that while nonlinear machine learning models offer economically meaningful out-of-sample forecasting gains for medium-horizon U.S. REIT returns—particularly in the health-care sector and driven by macroeconomic factors—they do not achieve statistically significant aggregate superiority over linear benchmarks after multiple-testing adjustments, with predictive signals concentrated in common time-series components rather than cross-sectional selection.

Mahsa Khoshnoud2026-10-15

📈 economics

Twin Transition: Do 5G Applications Really Improve Corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Performance?

This study utilizes a difference-in-differences model on Chinese listed firms to demonstrate that the 5G Pilot Program significantly enhances corporate ESG performance by accelerating digital transformation and promoting green technological innovation, with stronger effects observed in non-state-owned enterprises, high-tech industries, and eastern regions.

Sheng Zhang, Lanning Wei, Yuqi Wang, Mo Chen2026-10-15

📈 economics

A settlement currency to finance climate restoration and human prosperity

The paper proposes a hypothetical tree-backed stablecoin, "Carbonite," which would levy a 13-basis-point fee on global foreign-exchange turnover to generate the $3.1 trillion annually required to simultaneously fund large-scale carbon dioxide removal for climate restoration and meet basic human needs like ending hunger and expanding vaccine access.

Jonathan Bily2026-10-15

📈 economics

Learned Attention or Mechanical Flattening? Diagnosing Index Gains in Spillover Networks

This study demonstrates that while adding a graph attention layer to a spillover network model increases the total connectedness index, this gain is likely a mechanical artifact of variance redistribution rather than a genuine improvement in learned attention, as a simple shrinkage towards a uniform matrix achieves identical results with lower error.

Ozan Nadirgil2026-10-15

📈 economics

A Grey Markov Prediction Method Optimized by GSA for Forecasting Agricultural Cold Chain Transportation Volume in China

This study proposes an IGSA-optimized hybrid IGSA-Markov-FAGM(1,N) model that integrates fractional-order accumulation and Markov chain corrections to accurately forecast China's frozen agricultural products logistics transportation volume, demonstrating superior performance over existing methods in handling small samples and nonlinear trends.

QIYONG YANG, JIDAN HUANG, TAO DAI2026-10-15

📈 economics

Climate Damage Functions for Productivity: Evidence from Enterprise Survey Microdata

Using firm-level microdata from 125 countries and a long-difference framework to address spatial correlation concerns, this study reveals a robust, convex temperature damage function for productivity that imposes increasingly severe growth losses in hotter baseline climates, with significant regional heterogeneity and smaller projected losses when accounting for precipitation and climate extremes.

Uba Matthew Ndubuisi2026-10-15

📈 economics

Digital Leadership in Digital Transformation: A Bibliometric Analysis of Current Trends and Future Directions

This bibliometric analysis of 496 Web of Science documents maps the fragmented landscape of digital leadership and transformation research, identifying five current empirical clusters and four future thematic trends while highlighting the critical need for integrative, multi-level frameworks to connect leadership competencies with business and institutional outcomes.

Khalid Abdul Wahid, Mohd Nasir Ismail, Shamila Mohamed Shuhidan, Siti Zulaikha Mustapha, Siti Maziah Ab Rahman, Pratsane (…)2026-10-15

📈 economics

Exchange rate volatility and monetary policy measures on Nigeria's trade patterns

This paper analyzes Nigeria's trade patterns from 1986 to 2025 and concludes that while exchange rate volatility significantly harms the trade balance, its negative impact is mitigated by money supply growth, suggesting that direct foreign exchange stabilization is more effective for protecting trade than interest rate adjustments alone.

Ajibola Fatima Oladejo, Dorcas Tolulope Ayanwola, Nwoke Ejike M, Makinde Kazeem Olajide, Abiola Lydia Aina2026-10-15

📈 economics

The Stabilisation Gap: Artificial Intelligence Exposure and Macroeconomic Policy Space in the World's Ten Largest Economies

This paper analyzes the relationship between artificial intelligence exposure and macroeconomic policy space across the world's ten largest economies, finding that while AI capacity is highly concentrated and unrelated to occupational exposure, an AI-driven rise in trend growth can paradoxically narrow fiscal room by increasing the debt-stabilizing primary balance in high-debt nations, even as it potentially widens monetary policy space.

Alfredo Merlet2026-10-15

📈 economics

Digital Infrastructure and Urban Total Factor Productivity: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Broadband China Pilot Policy

This study provides causal evidence that China's Broadband China pilot policy significantly boosted urban total factor productivity by approximately 10% through mechanisms like technological innovation and industrial upgrading, though the effect is notably weaker in resource-based cities.

Jiawei Ma2026-10-15

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