📈 economics

From Local Shocks to Global Cascades: An End-to-End Framework for Simulating Complex Contagion in Financial Networks

This study proposes a hybrid static-dynamic framework that integrates community detection with a non-linear, multi-path risk coupling model to simulate and quantify the propagation of complex contagion, including AI-associated risks, from local shocks to global cascades within financial networks.

Hong Shen, Xinyu Ma, Yazhi Li, Jiaqian Wu, Su Jin, Xiaodong Zhang2026-10-05
📈 economics

Freezing One Front? Bilateral Ceasefires and the Composition of Armed Violence under Colombia's "Total Peace," 2018–2025

This article utilizes event-level data and difference-in-differences models to demonstrate that Colombia's bilateral ceasefires with major armed groups between 2023 and 2025 successfully reduced state-based violence by 86–94%. The findings show no detectable displacement of lethal attacks toward rival armed groups, though the evidence regarding potential shifts toward civilians remains inconclusive, neither confirming nor ruling out such substitution.

Alfredo Merlet2026-10-05✓ Author reviewed ⓘ
📈 economics

Structural Break Detection and Regime-Dependent Financial Time-Series Forecasting Using Change-Point Models and Markov Switching: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Equity Markets

This study evaluates the efficacy of integrating structural break detection with Markov-switching models for forecasting Asia-Pacific equity markets, finding that while break-aware adaptation offers selective improvements in downside-risk calibration, it does not universally outperform conventional Markov-switching benchmarks for return or volatility predictions.

Abhinav Tiwari, Mehul Mehta, Archit Arya, Harsh Choudhary, Varad Dahake2026-10-05
📈 economics

When the customer is a machine: a systematic literature review and integrative framework of agentic commerce

This systematic literature review synthesizes 140 studies from 1994 to 2026 to challenge the human-centric assumption of marketing by developing an integrative framework that categorizes agentic commerce through a five-level delegation ladder, a three-part influence triad, and a four-layer reference model to guide future research and measurement practices.

Mahyar Tourchi Moghaddam, Mina Alipour, Klaus G Grunert2026-10-05
📈 economics

Hyperspherical Semantic Trajectory Analysis: Mapping Technological Diffusion across Academic Preprints, Patent Signals, and Compute Scaling

This paper introduces Hyperspherical Semantic Trajectory Analysis (HSTA), an unsupervised methodology that maps real-time technological diffusion and semantic evolution across academic and patent texts, revealing that while specific AI sub-topics exhibit rapid paradigm shifts, paper volume alone does not statistically predict frontier compute allocation without conditioning on physical capital constraints.

MUHAMMAD SUKRI BIN RAMLI2026-10-05