Epidemiology is the study of how diseases spread through populations and what factors influence their patterns. Rather than focusing on individual patients, this field examines broader trends to identify outbreaks, track transmission, and guide public health decisions. By analyzing data on infection rates and risk factors, researchers work to prevent future health crises and protect communities worldwide.

On Gist.Science, we process every new preprint in this category directly from medRxiv to make these critical findings instantly accessible. For each study, we provide both a plain-language explanation for general readers and a detailed technical summary for specialists. This dual approach ensures that vital insights into disease dynamics are understood clearly and quickly by everyone who needs them.

Explore the latest research below to see how scientists are currently mapping disease trends and developing strategies to safeguard global health.

📊 epidemiology

National impact of Score MAMA on obstetric complications in Ecuador, 2012-2024: interrupted time series analysis

This interrupted time series analysis of Ecuador's national Score MAMA system (2012–2024) reveals that its implementation was associated with a selective increase in recorded hypertensive complications, suggesting improved detection of preeclampsia-eclampsia rather than a true rise in incidence or a reduction in hemorrhage, sepsis, or maternal mortality.

HERDOIZA ALMEIDA, A. S., Paredes, L. G., Guerrero Salinas, M. A., Guayta Valladares, A. W., Solorzano, A. A. T., LANAS M (…)2026-10-23
📊 epidemiology

BMI Deviations from Genetic Prediction Are Associated with Distinct Molecular Signatures in Finnish Population Cohorts

This study demonstrates that deviations between observed and genetically predicted BMI in Finnish cohorts are associated with distinct cardiometabolic, inflammatory, and molecular signatures that differ depending on whether individuals weigh more or less than their genetic predisposition, independent of absolute BMI.

Zhu, T., Drouard, G., Heikkinen, A., Hukkanen, M., Palviainen, T., Berntzen, B. J., Lyytikainen, L.-P., Raitoharju, E. (…)2026-10-23
📊 epidemiology

Mapping county-level tick-borne disease risk in Illinois by integrating vector abundance, pathogen prevalence, and phenology

This study developed and validated county-level, species-specific seasonal risk maps for three major tick-borne diseases in Illinois by integrating vector abundance, pathogen prevalence, and phenology data, demonstrating that these composite scores significantly predict human disease rates and providing an interactive tool for targeted public health interventions.

Hussain, A., Bhowmick, S., Mateus-Pinilla, N., Smith, R. L.2026-10-16
📊 epidemiology

Reconstructing Dengue Exposure Dynamics and Assessing the Public Health Impact of Vaccination Scenarios Using Mathematical Models in Brazil

This study reconstructs Brazil's state- and age-specific dengue immunity profiles using 2000–2025 surveillance data to demonstrate that optimal vaccination strategies depend on local susceptibility, with prioritizing children maximizing DALY reductions and targeting the elderly minimizing mortality, particularly under constrained vaccine supply.

Ko, Y., Santos, C., Huang, A. T., Salje, H., Cummings, D. A., Ko, A. I.2026-10-16
📊 epidemiology

Accuracy and completeness of death recording in primary care electronic health records compared with national death registrations in England using OpenSAFELY-TPP

This study utilizing OpenSAFELY-TPP data reveals that while primary care electronic health records in England demonstrate high overall completeness and concordance with national death registrations, significant discrepancies persist for recent deaths and specific demographic groups, necessitating careful consideration of data recency and population characteristics in research.

Pesce, M., Hulme, W. J., Kyomuhangi, I., Prestige, E., Evans, D., Wong, S. Y., Goldacre, B., Bacon, S. C., Mehrkar, A. (…)2026-10-15
📊 epidemiology

Intersectional Trajectories in Physical and Mental Health: A UK Longitudinal Study (2009-2024)

This UK longitudinal study (2009-2024) employs an intersectional multilevel analysis to reveal that physical health inequalities widen with age while mental health disparities are more pronounced in younger cohorts, particularly affecting White British women with no work history, thereby highlighting the need for proportionate universalism in health policy.

Holman, D., Bell, A., Bennett, M., Mendes Constante, H., Green, M., Piekut, A.2026-10-15
📊 epidemiology

Daily Exceedance of World Health Organization Air Pollutant Guidelines and Cognitive Aging

This prospective cohort study of over 12,000 older adults in England reveals that while annual average air pollution levels do not fully explain cognitive decline, a higher frequency of days exceeding World Health Organization daily guidelines for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is independently associated with accelerated long-term cognitive deterioration in memory and verbal fluency.

Bloomberg, M., Di Gessa, G., Scholes, S., Gasparrini, A., de la Cruz Libardi, A., Steptoe, A., Zaninotto, P.2026-10-12
📊 epidemiology

Longitudinal personal environmental exposure and Streptococcus pneumoniae colonisation in a cohort of children 5-14 years old in rural Gambia.

In a longitudinal study of 134 children aged 5–14 in rural Gambia, personal exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) was not found to be independently associated with *Streptococcus pneumoniae* colonisation, whereas higher average between-child temperature exposure was significantly linked to lower odds of colonisation.

Khan, D., Kwambana-Adams, B., Tientcheu, P. E., Thomas, S. A., Ndow, P. S., Kinteh, M.-A., Worwui, A., Mohammed, N. I. (…)2026-10-11✓ Author reviewed ⓘ
📊 epidemiology

Quantifying Systematic Bias in Observational Causal Estimates Using Negative Controls: The Bias Attribution Fraction

This paper introduces the Bias Attribution Fraction (BAF), a continuous metric that quantifies the proportion of an observed association attributable to systematic bias, demonstrating through extensive simulations and a MIMIC IV case study that combining BAF with calibrated P-values significantly reduces the misuse of biased observational estimates compared to using P-values alone.

Zeng, Z., Wang, J., Zuo, H., Shu, L.2026-10-11
📊 epidemiology

MID-LIFE LEISURE-TIME PHYSICAL ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER HIP FRACTURE RISK IN UK BIOBANK

This prospective study of UK Biobank participants indicates that moderately high volumes of mid-life leisure-time physical activity, particularly vigorous exercise, are associated with a reduced risk of hip fracture later in life, although this protective effect appears to diminish at higher activity levels.

Rolls, C., Faber, B. G., Clark, E. M., Dawes, H., Munafo, M. R., Tobias, J. H.2026-10-11