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Statistical Invisibility of Disability in Humanitarian Contexts: A Scoping Review and Case Lessons from Syria

This scoping review and case study of Syria reveal that conventional statistical methods systematically render people with disabilities invisible in humanitarian contexts by failing to capture complex, intersectional realities, thereby necessitating a paradigm shift toward more disaggregated and flexible data collection to ensure inclusive aid delivery.

Mahmoud Zazaa, Yiota A. Christou2026-08-24
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Home-hardening effect estimates are not sign-stable across wildfires: a cautionary analysis of 62,000 structure-loss inspections

This study demonstrates that machine-learning models trained on post-wildfire damage data, while accurate within specific events, fail to generalize across different fires because the protective or detrimental effects of home-hardening features (such as single-pane windows) are not stable and can even reverse depending on the fire context, thereby cautioning against using pooled observational data to derive universal hardening policies.

Carl Southwell2026-08-24
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Task Sampling, Score Reliability, and Apparent Intervention Effects in Writing Research: A Monte Carlo Study of Pretest–Posttest Designs

This Monte Carlo study demonstrates that in writing research pretest–posttest designs, varying the number of tasks and score reliability produces systematic trade-offs in performance and cost rather than a uniform ranking, thereby advocating for multi-criteria evaluation and mechanism-focused validation over reliance on single metrics.

connor nitchals2026-08-22
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The exponentiated generalized normal regression with two systematic components: Properties and application

This paper introduces a novel heteroscedastic regression framework based on the exponentiated generalized normal distribution with two shape parameters, validating its robustness through Monte Carlo simulations and demonstrating its practical application in modeling persimmon fruit coloration.

Gauss M. Cordeiro, Edwin M.M. Ortega, Gabriela M. Rodrigues, Roberto Vila, Ricardo Kluge2026-08-21
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Violence and the Limits of Urban Resilience Capacity: A Spatial and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Homicides in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas, Brazil (2017-2022)

This study employs spatial econometric and Bayesian hierarchical models to analyze homicides in Brazil's Metropolitan Region of Campinas (2017–2022), revealing that socioeconomic factors like income and dependency ratios, alongside strong spatial clustering, significantly influence violence patterns and necessitate territory-sensitive public security policies.

João Pedro Toledo Tricoli de Lucas, Juan Arturo Castañeda Ayarza2026-08-21
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Separating Biological and Choice Effects in Randomized Trials: Completing Causal Inference with β-Identification

This paper proposes a causal inference framework that decomposes randomized trial outcomes into biological effects (α\alpha) and preference-mediated choice effects (β\beta), arguing that formally identifying both components resolves ambiguity caused by nonadherence and crossover while providing a more complete understanding of treatment efficacy in preference-sensitive care.

Ogan Gurel, James Weinstein2026-08-20
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Probabilistic knowledge regimes in science: structural connectivity and semantic drift of scientific evolution

This paper introduces a large-scale probabilistic framework that integrates citation structures and semantic trajectories to identify five distinct latent regimes of scientific evolution, demonstrating that semantic drift is the strongest predictor of regime transitions and offering a more nuanced understanding of scientific dynamics beyond traditional citation impact.

Nishant Joshi Nishant2026-08-20
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Dataset-structured evidence synthesis for machine-learning prediction models: a methodological framework and worked example

This paper proposes and demonstrates a dataset-structured framework for synthesizing machine-learning prediction model evidence that redefines evidence units from publications to validation exercises, thereby correcting misrepresentations of independence and performance that arise from conventional pooling methods.

Osama Abdelhay, Da’ad Abdel-Hay, Abdullah F. Qasem, Taghreed Altamimi2026-08-20