stat papers | Gist.Science

Learning Analytics and Early Warning Systems for Mathematics Achievement: A Multi-Country Comparative Programme Evaluation

This review synthesizes evidence from thirty studies across multiple countries to evaluate the design, performance, and equity implications of learning analytics and early warning systems for mathematics achievement, highlighting their predictive potential while identifying critical gaps in algorithmic fairness, cross-country comparability, and the integration of domain-specific diagnostic insights.

Maryam Jimoh2026-08-04

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Bayesian Target-Domain SHAP under Covariate Shift: Posterior Propagation, Overlap, and Selective Action Risk

This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for target-domain interventional SHAP under covariate shift that derives exact posterior distributions and risk bounds to quantify uncertainty and optimize selective action, demonstrating through simulations and real-world data that this approach significantly reduces estimation error and opportunity loss compared to traditional methods, particularly when source and target distributions exhibit low overlap.

jiangshan zhu2026-08-04

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Factorial multistratum designs for building, optimising or evaluating multilevel interventions embedded in learning systems: A taxonomy of factorial cluster-randomised trial designs and their variants

This paper proposes a comprehensive taxonomy for factorial cluster-randomised trial designs, drawing on multistratum concepts from agricultural and industrial research to classify existing clinical examples, illustrate ten design variants using a theoretical obesity intervention, and highlight practical challenges for optimising multilevel healthcare interventions.

REA Walwyn, EL Turner, B Copsey, B Goulao, R Foy, AA Montgomery, SG Gilmour, SH Richards2026-08-03

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Statistical analysis of waste generation in Bukavu city using IoT sensor data

This study utilizes IoT sensor data and advanced statistical modeling to quantify and project solid waste generation in Bukavu, DRC, revealing significant spatial and demographic disparities in production rates and providing evidence-based insights to optimize collection strategies and prioritize interventions in the city's challenging topographical and infrastructural context.

Olivier Mugisho Mugaruka, Remco van Schadewijk, Wouter Deketelaere, Jules Raymond Kala, Jérémie Ndikumagenge, Elie Zihin (…)2026-08-03

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Double-Threshold Cascade Dynamics on Random Hypergraphs

This paper introduces a double-threshold cascade model on random hypergraphs that captures asymmetric adoption and abandonment barriers, revealing how the interplay between distinct thresholds and hyperedge size heterogeneity induces bistability and discontinuous phase transitions, a framework validated by both analytical theory and empirical simulations.

Juntao Lu, Fanyuan Meng2026-08-03

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Beyond Single-Score Matching: A Two-Dimensional Propensity Score Method for Mixed Covariate Types

This paper introduces a two-dimensional propensity score matching (2D-PSM) method that separately estimates scores for categorical and continuous confounders to achieve superior multivariate balance in observational studies with mixed covariate types and complex interactions compared to traditional single-score approaches.

Kostiantyn Botnar, Justin T. Nguyen, Kamil Khanipov, George Golovko2026-08-03

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An Operations Research Tutorial on Fairness Metrics and Resource Allocation

This paper provides a structured operations research tutorial that operationalizes and compares various fairness metrics, allocation schemes, and efficiency-fairness trade-offs within homogeneous resource settings, using a cloud computing proof-of-concept to illustrate the properties and strategic vulnerabilities of different fair-division paradigms.

Samuel Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Andrés D. González, Camilo Gómez2026-08-03

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Modelling multidimensional access to inpatient paediatric emergency hospital care in Kenya: A geospatial-statistical approach

This study develops a high-resolution, non-compensatory geospatial-statistical index of multidimensional access to inpatient paediatric emergency care in Kenya that reveals significant disparities masked by traditional travel-time metrics and demonstrates a stronger protective association with child survival, offering a superior framework for targeting health investments.

Moses M Musau, Samuel K. Muchiri, Emily Odipo, Sharon A. Onyango, Caroline Museka, Lenka Beňová, Catherine Linard, Emeld (…)2026-07-31

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Bayesian Estimation of the Univariate ACE Model With Ordinal Data

This paper introduces an efficient marginal likelihood approach implemented in Stan for Bayesian estimation of the univariate ACE model with ordinal data, which overcomes frequentist limitations regarding small samples and zero-frequency cells while decoupling computational cost from sample size.

Mark Lai, Christopher Beam2026-07-31

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Tails and Walls: Reality's Two Honest Priors

This paper proposes a unified statistical framework identifying two dual, maximally ignorant prior branches—heavy-tailed and compact-support "droplet"—that emerge from information-volume geometry and classify observable phenomena across a tail-shape footprint, ranging from molecular bond distributions to image representations.

Carlos C. Rodríguez2026-07-31

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