The Base-Rate Trap in Generative AI Text Detection: Why Detectors Cannot Serve as Standalone Evidence of Academic Misconduct, and Who Bears the Cost
This paper argues that generative AI text detectors are structurally unsuitable as standalone evidence of academic misconduct due to the base-rate fallacy, which causes unacceptably high false-positive rates and severe disparate impacts on non-native English writers, necessitating a shift from detection-based policing to assessment redesign.