earth_science papers | Gist.Science

Quantifying the spatiotemporal coupling effects of Shrinkage development policy and climate change on surface runoff

This study develops an integrated framework combining Random Forest, PLUS, and SWAT models to quantify the spatiotemporal coupling effects of shrinkage development policies and climate change on surface runoff, revealing that while ecological conservation policies help mitigate risks, climate change exerts a significantly stronger influence on runoff than land-use regulation alone.

Xiangbo Liu, Yue Lai, Zimeng Li, Siyao Liu, Zheran Zhai, Rui Yu, Di Li, Rui Huo, Wenzhuo Sun, xiaoyu Ge2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

An Extreme-Value Framework for Separating Rainfall Occurrence and Severity: Regime-Dependent Insights for Risk Assessment

This study proposes a diagnostic framework that separates rainfall occurrence and severity to reveal that while event frequency is consistently driven by atmospheric moisture transport across India, exceedance magnitude follows highly localized, regime-dependent patterns, thereby improving the physical interpretability and accuracy of nonstationary risk assessment models.

Shubham Dixit, Kamlesh Kumar Pandey2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Nature-dependent lifeways are widely exposed to ecological novelty

This study reveals that over 1.76 billion people globally, particularly those in rural areas dependent on nature, are already exposed to high levels of ecological novelty that diminishes ecosystem services, underscoring the urgent need to integrate these novel socio-ecological conditions into future conservation and sustainability planning.

Matthew Kerr, Celina Aznarez, Alejandro Ordonez, Felix Riede, Saxbee Affleck, Jens-Christian Svenning2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Adaptation Lock-in Shifts Justice from Allocation to Sequencing

Using tree canopy data from Greater Sydney, this study demonstrates that distinct justice principles create spatial commitments leading to adaptation lock-in, which shifts the primary policy challenge from equitable resource allocation to governing the procedural rules of decision sequencing over time.

Amir Hossein Pakizeh, Nader Naderpajouh2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Methane emissions from inland waters are constrained by salinity

This study demonstrates that salinity acts as a critical environmental filter in arid and semi-arid inland waters by reducing dissolved organic carbon availability and suppressing methanogenic microbial communities, thereby significantly constraining methane emissions.

Fei Yang, Yang Deng, Xiang Zhu, Lei Xie, Xiaoguang Xu, Yuying Ma, Fuquan Peng, Yaoqing Peng, Shunmei Zhu, Qinglong Yin (…)2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

What Controls Severe Aerosol Episodes over Cairo, Egypt (2010–2025): A Meteorological and Back-Trajectory Analysis

This study identifies synoptic-scale meteorological drivers, specifically strengthened low-to-mid-level winds, a surface pressure deficit, and a dominant Libya/North Africa transport pathway, as the primary controls on severe aerosol episodes over Cairo, distinguishing them from local boundary-layer effects.

Michael Nagy Riad Kamel Abd AlMalk2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Dry Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Is Increasing in Northern Canada Due to the Increasing Prevalence of Favorable Thermodynamic Environments

This study reveals that the unprecedented 2023 wildfire season in northern Canada was driven by a multi-decadal intensification of specific thermodynamic conditions—namely a warm, deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with humid mid-troposphere and dry sub-cloud air—that maximize dry lightning efficiency, a trend projected to increase regional dry lightning potential by 50% by 2100 under high-emissions scenarios.

Jinil Bae, Simon Wang, Jinho Yoon, Rackhun Son2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

The importance of large trees as carbon sinks in UK woodlands

This study demonstrates that conventional allometric methods significantly underestimate aboveground carbon in UK woodlands by failing to account for the disproportionate contribution of large trees, suggesting that terrestrial LiDAR is a superior tool for accurate carbon mapping and the development of improved size-to-mass models.

Phil Wilkes, Guilherme Castro, Mathilda Digby, Isabel Openshaw, Robert Barber, Gary Egan, Justin Moat, Rebecca Roberts (…)2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

Attributing child mortality and farmers migration to climate change through crop yield reductions in rural Burkina Faso

This study presents an attribution framework demonstrating that climate change-driven crop yield reductions in rural Burkina Faso have already measurably increased child mortality and farmer out-migration, underscoring the urgent need for ambitious adaptation policies in the Sahel.

Kristine Belesova, Rahel Laudien, Aness Chelfat, Omar Munira, Christoph Gornott, Joacim Rocklöv2026-07-16

📄 earth_science

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Surface Temperature, Rainfall and Vegetation Dynamics in Tamil Nadu Using Remote Sensing and GIS

This study utilizes Remote Sensing and GIS to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of Land Surface Temperature, rainfall, and vegetation in Tamil Nadu between 2015 and 2020, revealing moderate negative correlations between temperature and rainfall and highlighting the effectiveness of geospatial technologies for sustainable environmental management.

Pugazhenthi M, Gnanavel S, Pulla Muthu M, Jashrutha Sakthi U2026-07-16