📄 earth science

Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model

By incorporating actively melting, kilometer-scale grounding zones into a calibrated ice-sheet model, researchers demonstrate that Thwaites Glacier's retreat is driven by these previously neglected processes, potentially doubling its projected sea-level contribution by 2100 compared to earlier estimates.

Mattia Poinelli, Eric Rignot, Helene Seroussi, Josh Cuzzone, Tyler Pelle, Eric Larour2026-06-25
📄 earth science

A Machine-Learning Framework for Forecasting Climate-Induced Shifts in Mosquito Vector Ecology and Arboviral Disease Risk Across the Middle East

This paper presents an interpretable, uncertainty-aware machine-learning framework that integrates climate projections and socio-environmental data to forecast the northward expansion of *Aedes* mosquito habitats and the resulting increase in arboviral disease risk across the Middle East under various climate change scenarios.

Ebrahim Abbasi2026-06-25
📄 earth science

Integrated Geophysical and Reactive Transport Assessment of Fracture-Controlled Rare Earth Mineral Recovery in Pegmatitic Subsurface Systems

This study integrates geophysical surveys and reactive transport modeling to characterize fracture-controlled permeability and mineral distribution in pegmatitic systems, demonstrating how structural heterogeneity facilitates efficient and environmentally responsible rare earth element recovery.

Damilare Stephen Adepehin, Vincent Bailey Arohunmolase, Pauline Oluwatoyin Ijila, Isaac Oyewole Adegoke, Adeyemi Paul Ad (…)2026-06-25
📄 earth science

Climate risk, uneven development, and threshold-dependent tourism resilience in western China

This study utilizes city-level panel data from western China to demonstrate that tourism resilience exhibits significant threshold dependence and regional differentiation, where the impact of climate risk on tourism performance is nonlinearly moderated by economic development levels and adaptive capacity, necessitating place-specific governance strategies.

Lanyue Zhou, Hanqing Bao, Qian Wang, Junhao Li2026-06-25
📄 earth science

Seismic analytical reliability analysis of triangular rock wedge slope stability

This study proposes the Jointly Distributed Random Variables (JDRV) method as a computationally efficient and accurate analytical solution for the seismic reliability analysis of triangular rock wedge slopes, demonstrating that treating all geotechnical and geometric parameters as stochastic variables yields more conservative failure probabilities and identifying the sliding surface friction angle as the most critical sensitivity factor.

Ali johari, A. Duzandeh, SS. Kalantari Kouhbanani, M.A. Najafgholipour2026-06-25
📄 earth science

Climate-driven carbon exchange in German forests before, during and after the 2018 drought: implications of climate forcing uncertainty

Using the LandscapeDNDC model, this study reveals that the 2018 drought caused a significant, persistent reduction in Germany's forest carbon sink strength with spatially heterogeneous impacts, while also demonstrating that uncertainties in climate forcing data (specifically between E-OBS and ERA5) critically alter simulated carbon flux estimates by influencing evaporation, transpiration, and respiration rates.

Hassane Moutahir, Hannes Imhof, Pia Labenski, Edwin Haas, David Kraus, Sophia Walther, Michael Bell, Christian Markwitz (…)2026-06-25