Assessing Precipitation Memory and Operational Controls on National-Scale Reservoir Storage and Hydropower Dynamics in Türkiye
This study employs a data-efficient framework combining STL, an optimized precipitation-memory index, and VARX modeling to demonstrate that while hydro-climatic forcing drives water availability fluctuations in Türkiye's national reservoirs, institutional operational management ultimately governs how these signals persist and propagate through the water-energy system over time.