📈 economics

Period-Aware Analog Retrieval for Probabilistic Financial RiskForecasting

This paper introduces Period-Aware Analog Retrieval, a non-parametric framework for probabilistic financial risk forecasting that constructs return distributions by retrieving and aggregating outcomes from historically similar market days identified through a three-stage filter of macroeconomic regime, calendar proximity, and learned distributional similarity, thereby significantly improving tail risk calibration and economic performance during volatile periods compared to existing models.

Ha Hung, Ngo Thanh, Nguyen Bao2026-07-03
📈 economics

Foreign Aid, Trade, and Growth in MENA, Africa, and South Asia: An Analysis of Nonlinear and Conditional Effects

This study utilizes a System-GMM framework to demonstrate that foreign aid fosters sustained economic growth in MENA, Africa, and South Asia only when recipient economies possess sufficient absorptive capacity—such as infrastructure and macroeconomic stability—and when aid is effectively coordinated with trade and investment strategies rather than undermining them.

Fouzia Yasmin, Muqarab Abbas, Ahsan Abbas, Muhammad Adnan YASIN2026-07-03
📈 economics

Integrating Spatial Econometrics and Remote Sensing for Pixel-Level Wind Energy Corridor Identification: Evidence from West Bengal, India

This study integrates remote sensing and spatial econometrics to identify pixel-level wind energy corridors in West Bengal, India, revealing that the Spatial Error Model best explains the negative impact of tree cover and built-up areas on wind potential while highlighting the high development potential in the state's southern and coastal districts.

Samidh Pal2026-07-02
📈 economics

The Role of Institutional Quality on Fiscal Policy, Natural Resources, and Islamic Finance Channels in Driving Green Growth across D-8 Countries

This study utilizes panel data from 2000 to 2024 across D-8 Muslim-majority economies to demonstrate that while natural resource use and Islamic banking significantly promote green growth, fiscal policy currently hinders it due to fossil-fuel subsidies, a dynamic that is critically shaped by institutional quality and income levels.

MD AMIRUL ISLAM2026-07-02