USDT Premium as an Empirical Signal for Crisis Regime Identification: Evidence from the Stablecoin Market 2019-2026
This paper demonstrates that the USDT premium serves as a real-time, zero-latency signal for distinguishing between traditional finance crises, which drive positive premiums, and crypto-native crises, which drive negative premiums, thereby offering a unique empirical tool for crisis regime identification independent of delayed macroeconomic data.