📈 economics

Sentiment Signals in a Fragile Democracy: NLP-Driven Detection of News and Social-Media Effects on Peruvian Banking Asset Volatility

This paper proposes an NLP-driven framework using FinBERT and social media sentiment analysis to enhance the detection of political instability's impact on Peruvian banking asset volatility, demonstrating that such models significantly outperform traditional statistical baselines and offering a cost-effective early-warning tool for regulators.

PAUL RICARDO PRUDENCIO GALVEZ2026-06-30
📈 economics

Systemic Contagion in RWA-Tokenized Ecosystems: DeFi–Traditional Banking Regulatory Friction and Prudential Supervision Framework Proposal for Peru

This study quantitatively analyzes the systemic contagion risks between DeFi RWA-tokenized ecosystems and traditional banking in Peru, revealing high correlation and liquidity vulnerabilities, and proposes a tiered regulatory framework involving the SBS, SUNAT, and INDECOPI to mitigate these risks while enhancing tax compliance and consumer protection.

PAUL RICARDO PRUDENCIO GALVEZ2026-06-30
📈 economics

Real Options Valuation Framework for Emerging Technologies in A/E/C Projects Under Structural Uncertainty: Stochastic Parametric Integration and Evidence from Peru

This paper proposes an integrated Real Options Analysis framework combining Black-Scholes-Merton and Cox-Ross-Rubinstein models with stochastic parametric cost formulas to demonstrate that, unlike traditional Discounted Cash Flow methods which systematically undervalue emerging technologies in Peruvian A/E/C projects, this approach captures significant managerial flexibility and option value under high structural uncertainty, potentially transforming negative net present value projects into highly profitable investments.

PAUL RICARDO PRUDENCIO GALVEZ2026-06-30
📈 economics

ESG Performance as a Risk Governance Mechanism: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

This study demonstrates that superior ESG performance significantly reduces corporate risk-taking among Chinese listed firms by enhancing internal control quality and information transparency, with this risk-mitigating effect being particularly pronounced in environments characterized by weaker audit quality and limited analyst coverage.

Ke Li, Zonghong Dai, Shuang Yan Dai, Shuaiqi Zhang, Zhijian Wang, Hong Qing2026-06-30
📈 economics

The Global Economic Case for Immediate and Continuous Coastal Adaptation

This study demonstrates that immediate and continuous coastal adaptation is economically optimal for a significant portion of the global coastline, with 28% requiring action now and 31% by 2150, primarily through retreat and protection strategies that, if unaddressed, will disproportionately burden the Global South.

Vanessa Völz, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Lars Honsel, Athanasios Vafeidis, Sebastiano Bacca2026-06-30
📈 economics

Time-Varying Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interaction and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia using a TVP-VAR-SV Approach

Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) framework on Indonesian data from 2000 to 2025, this study finds that inflation dynamics have increasingly shifted from monetary to fiscal drivers, particularly following the post-pandemic fiscal expansion, thereby validating the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and suggesting that effective monetary normalization requires coordinated fiscal consolidation.

Abul Hasan Umar, Firman Taufik, Sulaiha Ali2026-06-30