📈 economics

Consensus backbones for directed economic and financial networks: sovereign risk spillovers and the emerging-market core

This paper introduces a consensus backbone method for directed economic networks to reveal a sparse, hierarchical spillover structure, demonstrating through a 36-country analysis that sovereign risk transmission is dominated by concentrated bilateral channels among emerging markets while advanced economies exhibit diffuse, symmetric spillovers.

Jorge Antonio Chan-Lau2026-10-15
📈 economics

Manufacturer vs. Retailer: Who Should Manage Returns in Revenue-Sharing Contracts under Multiplicative Demand?

This paper analyzes pricing and ordering decisions in a two-echelon supply chain with multiplicative demand and product returns, demonstrating that while revenue-sharing contracts fail to coordinate the channel without shared return costs, cost-revenue sharing can achieve coordination and that retailer-managed returns become optimal for both parties once a critical sharing ratio threshold is exceeded.

Milena Bieniek, Jarosław Banaś2026-10-14
📈 economics

Housing liquidation and financial adequacy of divorced and widowed retirees in New Zealand

Using New Zealand's SoFIE panel data from 2002 to 2009, this study finds that divorced and widowed retirees face significant financial inadequacy risks when liquidating assets to rent, with divorced women, widowed Māori/Pacific Islanders, non-homeowners, and those in multi-dwelling units being the most vulnerable groups.

Jelita Noviarini, Andrew Coleman, Helen Roberts, Rosalind H. Whiting2026-10-14
📈 economics

When Validation Defines Abnormality: Prediction Targets in Bayesian Accrual Measurement

This paper demonstrates that in clustered longitudinal settings, the choice of predictive validation target (individual firm-years versus entire firms) fundamentally alters the reference frame of residual-based proxies by shifting the weight of Bayesian model selection between firm-specific and population-level benchmarks, thereby materially changing the classification of abnormal behavior.

Quan Pham2026-10-14
📈 economics

Rethinking Entrepreneurship Education Policy Mandates to Foster Resilient Student Startup Ecosystems in Indonesia

Based on a study of 1,032 Indonesian student entrepreneurs, this paper argues that business sustainability is driven solely by execution capabilities rather than institutional support or regional economic conditions, urging policymakers to shift from motivational campaigns to rigorous, standardized skills development.

Siti Nurbayani, Mokh. Iman Firmansyah, Qolbi Mujahidillah Adzimat Sukmayadi2026-10-14
📈 economics

Formal humanitarian food aid is spatially constrained, while informal food aid bridges the gap: Evidence from pastoral Ethiopia.

This study of pastoral households in Ethiopia reveals that while formal humanitarian food aid is significantly constrained by distance from distribution centers, informal food sharing effectively bridges this spatial gap, particularly during droughts, suggesting that humanitarian strategies should leverage this complementary redistribution to ensure broader access.

Chun Song, Fiona Flintan, Amanuel Assefa, Kelvin Shikuku2026-10-14