📈 economics

Unproductive rebound: Experimental evidence from four countries

Through a pre-registered experiment involving 4,586 participants across four countries, this study reveals that efficiency improvements often trigger "unproductive rebound," where lower input costs lead to significantly increased resource consumption without corresponding gains in output, a behavior that persists even when environmental costs are made salient.

Adriana Gaviria, Umair Ashraf Rana, Marisa Bucheli, Miguel Carriquiry, Bartlomiej Dessoulavy-Sliwinski, Filippos Exadakt (…)2026-07-21
📈 economics

Forced Labour Risk Footprints of Japan’s Final Demand for Manufactured Products

This study utilizes a multi-regional input-output model to estimate that Japan's 2021 manufacturing final demand is linked to approximately 51,000 worker-equivalents of forced labour risk, primarily concentrated in emerging Asian economies and specific sectors like food, electronics, and apparel, thereby highlighting the need for consumption-based human rights due diligence aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Fumiya NAGASHIMA2026-07-21
📈 economics

Institutional Quality and Human Development in Asia: The Mediating Role of E‑Governance and the Limits of Digital and Fiscal Moderation

This study of 39 Asian economies reveals that institutional quality enhances human development primarily through the mediating mechanism of e-governance, while digital readiness and income levels fail to significantly moderate this relationship, suggesting that governance mechanisms are more critical than macro-level enabling conditions.

ANDI JAM'AN2026-07-21
📈 economics

A Computer-Implemented Risk Prediction and Constrained Pricing Framework for Interest Rate Adjustment and Risk-Premium Redistribution in Subprime Auto Loans

This paper presents a computer-implemented framework that integrates gradient boosting, survival analysis, and constrained optimization to refine subprime auto loan pricing, significantly improving risk prediction accuracy and enabling more granular interest rate adjustments that lower rates for low-risk borrowers while adhering to profit and loss constraints.

Tianyi Xu, Jiawei Zhang, Weijun Zhu2026-07-21
📈 economics

Renewable Capacity, Coal Spillovers, and Grid Reliability: Spatial Durbin and LeSage-Pace Panel Evidence from Indian States Under SDG 7

Despite India's near-universal electrification and significant renewable capacity additions, this study of 35 states from 2020 to 2023 reveals that coal generation remains the primary driver of energy deficits while renewable capacity shows no measurable impact on reliability, suggesting that current capacity-based SDG 7 monitoring overstates the operational maturity of the energy transition.

Prakash Gurumurti Vhankade2026-07-21
📈 economics

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Shocks, and Asset Prices in a Small Open Frontier Economy: An Integrated Multi-Horizon Distributional Analysis

This study utilizes an integrated multi-horizon distributional analysis of Ghana's equity market from 2014 to 2024 to reveal that domestic monetary policy shocks have a weak and inconsistent impact on stock returns, whereas global oil prices and short-term funding costs play a more significant, state-dependent role in driving market dynamics.

Isaac Nyame, Gabriel Osei Forkuo2026-07-21