📈 economics

Breaking the Center-Periphery Trap? Return Migration Entrepreneurship and Intra-County Spatial Restructuring in China

This paper utilizes a quasi-natural experiment in China to demonstrate that the National Return Migration Entrepreneurship Pilot Program breaks the core-periphery trap by simultaneously boosting aggregate economic growth and reducing intra-county spatial inequality through mechanisms like urban-rural income convergence and digital infrastructure amplification.

BO XU, Yingde Hu, Kunpeng Xu, Gang Zou2026-07-22
📈 economics

Dynamic Carbon-Budget Black--Litterman Portfolio Optimization under ETS Transition Risk: EU and UK Historical Learning Cases and a Thai Pre-ETS Application

This paper proposes a dynamic carbon-budget Black-Litterman framework that integrates market priors with carbon-transition views and EUA futures hedging to effectively manage transition risk for investors in both established EU/UK markets and pre-ETS environments like Thailand, demonstrating that such a risk-control overlay improves portfolio resilience during carbon tightening while acknowledging potential costs during policy relaxation.

Wanyok Atisattapong, Pasin Marupanthorn2026-07-22
📈 economics

Dynamic Effects of Prefecture-Level Industrial Structure on Labor Migration: Evidence from Chinese Census Data

Using Chinese census data and a conditional logit model, this study reveals that while prefecture-level nonagricultural industrial structure has historically driven labor migration through wage and employment opportunities, its influence followed an inverted-U pattern from 1996 to 2015, peaking before 2010 and subsequently weakening due to rising living costs and diminishing marginal wage gains.

Xiaolan Yang, Xingzhi Yao, Xuankai Zhao, Xinyue Zhu2026-07-22
📈 economics

Digital Financial Inclusion and Urban Household Consumption: Spatial Spillovers and City Heterogeneity in the Yangtze River Delta, China

This study analyzes panel data from 41 cities in China's Yangtze River Delta (2011–2023) to demonstrate that digital financial inclusion significantly boosts urban household consumption, with effects being stronger in non-core and smaller cities and exhibiting geographically localized spatial spillovers that support the need for differentiated, place-sensitive policy interventions.

Youzhou Wei, Rongdong Huang, Kunlin Tang2026-07-22
📈 economics

Modeling rare-earth and energy materials supply chains under theoretical China-outer-Mongolia political reunification scenarios

This paper employs a dynamic partial equilibrium Stackelberg model to demonstrate that deepening resource integration between China and Outer Mongolia under a theoretical reunification scenario could significantly boost rare earth output, lower global prices, and enhance China's supply security and social welfare, while highlighting the substantial economic costs of infrastructure delays and the welfare losses imposed on global industrial consumers.

Xi Liu, Wenxi Fang2026-07-22
📈 economics

Debt Servicing, Exchange Rate Depreciation, and Inflation in Ghana: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing and NARDL Asymmetric Analysis

This study utilizes ARDL and NARDL frameworks to analyze Ghana's 1993–2024 data, revealing that while structural breaks limit long-run cointegration, public debt servicing negatively impacts inflation through demand crowding-out, whereas exchange rate movements symmetrically drive inflation and GDP growth dampens it.

Isaac Nyame, Gabriel Osei Forkuo2026-07-22
📈 economics

The Impact of Climate Change on Industrial and Total Productivity: Study Comparisons Among ASEAN and OECD Countries

This study employs a dynamic panel analysis of 28 OECD and ASEAN countries to reveal that while ASEAN economies face immediate, severe productivity losses due to their proximity to critical temperature thresholds, OECD nations currently exhibit short-term resilience but face significant long-term risks to industrial output, underscoring the critical role of industrial structure and adaptive capacity in shaping heterogeneous climate vulnerabilities.

DZAKYATUR ROVIDAH, Wida Reza Hardiyanti2026-07-22