📈 economics

Passenger Commitment and Airline Loyalty: A Strategic Framework for Travel Reserve Accounts and Revenue Quality

This paper proposes a strategic framework for airline loyalty that shifts from retrospective rewards to a reciprocal "travel reserve" model, arguing that advance customer funding creates sustainable value only when paired with transparent, capacity-aware benefits, fair pricing, and rigorous operational governance to maintain trust and regulatory compliance.

Soroosh Khajavi2026-10-12
📈 economics

Dispersion-Matched Forecast Comparison: Separating Skill from Shrinkage in the Evaluation of Financial Prediction Models

This paper demonstrates that conventional financial forecast comparisons based on squared error are fundamentally flawed because they inadvertently rank models by their dispersion shrinkage rather than predictive skill, leading to spurious statistical significance, and proposes a "dispersion-matched" correction that rescales forecasts to the target's variance to isolate and accurately test genuine predictive ability.

Shelly Suman Khuntia, Ajaya Kumar Parida, Satya Narayan Misra, Santisudha Panigrahi2026-10-12
📈 economics

Optimal design of a green ammonia export supply chain from Saudi Arabia under demand, price and route uncertainty: a two-stage stochastic programming approach

This paper employs a two-stage stochastic programming model to demonstrate that an optimal green ammonia export supply chain from Saudi Arabia to Europe and East Asia should be concentrated solely at the NEOM site with a capacity of 1.80 Mt/yr, yielding a significant economic advantage over deterministic designs and proving highly sensitive to market prices and capital costs under demand and route uncertainties.

Abdulkader Hanbazazah2026-10-12
📈 economics

An Intelligent Regime-Aware, Arbitrage-Consistent, and Explainable Semi-Parametric Framework for High-Frequency Derivatives Pricing and Algorithmic Trading

This paper presents a novel five-module semi-parametric framework that integrates deep learning with financial theory to achieve regime-aware, arbitrage-consistent, and explainable high-frequency derivatives pricing and algorithmic trading, demonstrating significant improvements in accuracy, risk management, and interpretability over existing state-of-the-art models.

Chandrayani Rokde, Jagdish Chakole, Aishwarya Ukey2026-10-12
📈 economics

Cheap to Visit, Expensive to Afford A Cross-Country Analysis of Travel Costs, Purchasing Power and Local Affordability

This paper demonstrates that the ranking of countries by travel cost varies drastically depending on whether one measures nominal USD expenses, local purchasing power, or income-based affordability, revealing that poorer nations are not necessarily more expensive to visit but are less affordable because travel prices do not scale down with lower local incomes.

Kunal Dhanda2026-10-12
📈 economics

Timing Groundwater Protection: An Optimal Control Analysis of Annual Floors versus Terminal Targets for Irrigated Cotton in Lubbock County, Texas

This study employs a discrete-time optimal control model to demonstrate that while annual groundwater pumping floors in Lubbock County, Texas, successfully prevent stock depletion below a 90% target without altering cumulative pumping or mean acreage, they significantly reduce net present value by $1.0 to $13.5 million and are highly sensitive to yield multipliers and cotton prices rather than initial storage levels.

Patrick Nyenkan2026-10-12
📈 economics

Digitally Enabled Accounts and Unsolicited Requests for Money: Exposure and Payment Response among Phone Owners in 75 Economies

Based on 2025 Global Findex data from 75 economies, holders of digitally enabled accounts are significantly more likely to both receive unsolicited money requests and comply with them compared to other phone owners, with the majority of this increased risk occurring at the payment stage rather than the initial contact stage.

Faria Zahan Sarna, NHM Hassan Imam Chowdhury, Abdullah Al Himel2026-10-12
📈 economics

Title: An Empirical Investigation of the Connection Between Broadband Provision, Speed and Adoption in the United States

This paper investigates the relationship between broadband provision, speed, and adoption in the United States, finding that increased provision does not always boost adoption rates and that the sensitivity of adoption to speed improvements varies significantly by income level and rurality, with higher-income rural households and lower-income urban households showing the greatest responsiveness.

Thomas Keene, Elizabeth Mack, Scott Loveridge, John Mann, Edward Helderop2026-10-09