📈 economics

Tariff Shocks, Exchange Rate Fluctuations, and Capital Controls

This study utilizes a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model to demonstrate that while foreign tariff shocks typically depress domestic output and consumption via currency depreciation under independent policies, a pegged tariff rule can trigger a counteracting domestic response that induces currency appreciation, thereby offsetting adverse effects and boosting economic activity, with capital controls further stabilizing exchange rates in this context.

Li Wang2026-10-06
📈 economics

Extreme weather and grain farmers’ labor input decisions: Evidence from China’s National Fixed Point Survey

Based on China's National Fixed Point Survey, this study reveals that extreme weather events suppress grain farmers' agricultural labor input while increasing their non-agricultural labor supply, with these adaptive responses varying significantly by resource endowment, market and policy factors, and demographic characteristics through mechanisms of factor substitution, resilience buffering, and information transmission.

Song Yu, Lulu Yang2026-10-06
📈 economics

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Shocks, and Asset Prices in a Small Open Frontier Economy: A Restricted-Sample, Multi-Horizon Distributional Analysis

By employing a rigorous restricted-sample design and advanced multi-horizon distributional methods to eliminate interpolation artifacts and control for false discoveries, this study finds that Ghana's equity market exhibits only a loose and uneven coupling to domestic monetary policy, with global commodity prices and short-term funding costs playing a more significant, state-dependent role in asset price dynamics.

Isaac Nyame, Gabriel Osei Forkuo2026-10-06
📈 economics

Beyond Independent Shots on Goal: Risk Capacity, Synergy, and Concentration in Pharmaceutical R&D Portfolios

This paper presents a quantitative framework demonstrating that while concentrating pharmaceutical R&D efforts on shared biology (synergy) can improve efficiency, it increases downside risk and revenue cannibalization, requiring specific R&D cost savings (typically 15–29%) to justify the strategy within a company's financial capacity and launch targets.

Michael Robert Doane2026-10-06
📈 economics

Forecasting NDC non-compliance: Economic structure, national capacity and the limits of climate finance

This study forecasts that two-thirds of non-Annex I countries will miss their 2030 decarbonization targets, revealing that compliance is driven primarily by domestic structural factors like productive capacity and institutions rather than international climate finance, while also highlighting the fragility of self-declared targets due to land-use reclassifications.

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins, Rodrigo Fagundes Cezar, Débora Aparecida Carrer, Alan Leal2026-10-06
📈 economics

Finance and Technology under Negotiated Equity Constraints: An Evolutionary Game of Differentiated Climate Cooperation

This paper employs an evolutionary game theory model to demonstrate how the interplay between negotiated distributive benchmarks, participation constraints, and the institutional recognition of technology effectiveness determines the stability and path dependence of differentiated climate cooperation between finance providers and recipients.

Enying Zhang, Luanyu Tang, Jiawei Zhao2026-10-06
📈 economics

Revenue Portfolio Design, Fiscal Network Position, and Inequality: Evidence from Europe

This paper analyzes European tax data from 1995 to 2022 to demonstrate that while domestic tax diversification reduces income inequality, a country's centrality within the European fiscal network and its neighbors' VAT compliance gaps are structural factors that increase inequality, highlighting the need for coordinated policy action to address network-driven disparities.

Achillefs Karakotsios, Thomas Panagiotou, Constantinos Katrakilidis2026-10-06
📈 economics

One factor, heavy tails and fragile pegs: evidence from a ten-year panel of cryptoassets and stablecoins

This paper analyzes a comprehensive ten-year panel of cryptoassets and stablecoins to demonstrate that these markets are characterized by heavy-tailed risks, extreme fragility, and a dominant single-factor structure that links asset volatility to stablecoin peg instability, challenging the notion that volatility is rewarded.

Nilton Gomes Furtado, Daniel Ferreira Polonia, Jullia Vasconcelos Furtado2026-10-06