📈 economics

Collective Adaptation in Financial Markets: Financial Engineering, Complex Networks, and Systemic Resilience

This paper proposes a theoretical framework modeling the financial system as a complex adaptive network where financial engineering functions as an endogenous layer that creates a micro-macro wedge, allowing individual risk reduction to inadvertently amplify systemic vulnerabilities, thereby offering new insights into resilience, policy, and sustainability.

Rossitsa Yalamova2026-10-06
📈 economics

Structural Shocks in Peru’s Macroeconomic Aggregates across 1990s Reforms: A Bayesian State-Space Analysis

Using a Bayesian state-space framework to analyze Peru's quarterly per capita GDP from 1980 to 2019, this study finds that while permanent shocks dominated output fluctuations in both the pre- and post-1990s reform periods, the post-reform era is characterized by a stabilized trend, increased persistence of temporary shocks, and a significant shift in shock correlations from positive to negative, suggesting greater macroeconomic stability following liberalization.

Cesar Sobrino2026-10-06
📈 economics

Human-in-the-Loop Tax Auditing: Optimal Triage Between AI and Human Inspectors

This paper presents a formal economic model and large-scale synthetic experiments demonstrating that optimal tax auditing triage allocates scarce human inspection capacity based on the combined incremental value of evidence generation and superior recovery procedures, yielding welfare gains significantly higher than risk-only or uncertainty-first allocation strategies while accounting for complex factors like error dependence and behavioral deterrence.

Kun Huang2026-10-06
📈 economics

Macroeconomic and Global Financial Determinants of NIFTY 50 Volatility in India: Evidence from Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate, Capital Flows and Global Uncertainty

This study employs GARCH-family models on high-frequency data from 2015 to 2026 to analyze how domestic monetary policy, exchange rates, capital flows, and global uncertainty drive NIFTY 50 volatility across distinct economic regimes, including the pre-pandemic era, the COVID-19 shock, global monetary tightening, and recent geopolitical developments.

Sidharth Kumar2026-10-06
📈 economics

Testing Bidirectional Relationships between Saving Participation and Financial Inclusion in East Africa: Evidence from Propensity Score Matching

Using Propensity Score Matching on World Bank Global Findex 2021 data, this study reveals that the relationship between saving participation and financial inclusion in East Africa is predominantly unidirectional and country-specific, with significant effects observed only in Uganda (borrowing driving saving), Kenya (saving driving borrowing and internet access, while digital payments drive saving), and Tanzania (no significant post-matching relationships), thereby challenging the assumption of generalized bidirectional causality.

Stephen Robert Kasumba, Gertrude Ssebunya Muwanga, Peter Babyenda2026-10-06
📈 economics

Probabilistic Assessment of Expected Profitability in Housing Development under Land, Regulatory and Spatial Conditions: Evidence from the Greater Valparaíso Conurbation, Chile

This study employs Monte Carlo simulations and OLS regression on 74 residential projects in Greater Valparaíso, Chile, to demonstrate that higher land costs, specific regulatory constraints like minimum lot sizes, and greater distance from the coastline significantly reduce expected profitability in housing development.

Bastián Cornejo-Kunz, Karen Castañeda, Rodrigo F. Herrera2026-10-06
📈 economics

Subsidy Strategies for Drone Food Delivery under Dual Network Externalities: A Four-Party Stackelberg Game Approach

This paper employs a four-party Stackelberg game model to analyze how indirect network effects, peer effects, and psychological costs influence optimal government subsidy strategies for drone food delivery, revealing that the most effective subsidy targets and intensity depend on the relative strength of these externalities and psychological thresholds.

Haonan He, Jingjing Li, Ying Sun2026-10-06
📈 economics

Does Artificial Intelligence Promote Corporate Green Transformation? — Empirical Evidence from the “AI Innovation and Application Pilot Zone”

This study empirically demonstrates that China's "AI Innovation and Application Pilot Zone" policy significantly drives corporate green transformation through mechanisms like improved resource allocation and green innovation, with effects varying across firm characteristics and serving as a robust foundation for future AI-driven green growth policies.

Yi Zhou2026-10-05