WITHDRAWN: Indonesia’s Net Tax Revenue Resilience After COVID-19: Controlled Interrupted Time Series, 2015–2025

In the complex machinery of a modern nation, the flow of money collected by the government serves as the lifeblood for public services, infrastructure, and stability. This collection, known as net tax revenue, is not a static number but a living current that rises and falls with the health of the economy and the policies of the state. When a sudden, massive shock strikes a country, such as a global pandemic, the question becomes whether this financial current can withstand the turbulence or if it will break under the pressure. Economists and policy makers watch these flows closely, trying to distinguish between a temporary dip and a permanent shift, using statistical tools to trace the path of money before, during, and after a crisis to understand the true resilience of a nation's economy.

The author set out to examine this very question in Indonesia, focusing on the years spanning from 2015 through 2025. They aimed to see how the country's net tax revenue held up after the severe disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To do this, they employed a method called a controlled interrupted time series analysis. This approach is like looking at a long, continuous line of data points that represents the flow of tax money over a decade, and then carefully observing what happens to that line when a specific event—the pandemic—suddenly interrupts the pattern. By comparing the actual trajectory of the revenue against what would have been expected if the crisis had not occurred, the author could isolate the specific impact of the pandemic and the subsequent recovery period.

The study was intended to provide a clear picture of Indonesia's financial recovery, tracking the numbers year by year to see if the revenue stream returned to its previous strength or if it settled into a new, lower state. The author planned to use data covering the period up to 2025 to determine whether the economic shock had left a lasting scar on the nation's ability to collect taxes or if the system had proven robust enough to bounce back. However, the story of this research has taken a different turn. The author has formally withdrawn the full text of this work. They state that they no longer stand by the findings or the conclusions they reached in the study.

Because the author has determined that their results are no longer reliable, they have asked that the work not be cited as a reference by others. The paper, which was dated August 21, 2026, is effectively removed from the scientific record. The author has not provided a new set of numbers or a revised explanation to replace the original one; instead, they have simply declared that the previous analysis cannot be trusted. For anyone seeking to understand the resilience of Indonesia's tax revenue after the pandemic, this specific study offers no answer, as the author behind it has decided that the path they took to find the solution was flawed. The question of how the tax revenue behaved remains open, and the only certainty from this document is that the author themselves has lost confidence in the story they told.