📈 Category

econ

1128 papers

📈 economics

International Linkage and Democratic Velocity: Nonlinear Attribution Evidence from a Neural Additive Model for Panel Data

This study employs a novel interpretable Neural Additive Model for Panel Data (NAM-PD) to demonstrate that institutional treaty depth is the dominant predictor of democratic backsliding with a universally negative impact, while diplomatic engagement uniquely promotes democratic gains, and other linkage factors like migration and foreign direct investment exhibit complex nonlinear or counterintuitive effects across 176 countries from 1995 to 2025.

Hakan Mehmetcik2026-07-14
📈 economics

Structural Reallocation in Finance: The Tri-Faceted Impact of AI on Securities, Wealth Management, and Algorithmic Governance

This paper argues that generative AI and machine learning are restructuring the financial industry's labor market by substituting junior roles in securities trading, augmenting wealth management professionals, and creating a new risk management sub-sector, ultimately necessitating a workforce with combined expertise in technology and finance to address emerging skill gaps.

Aarav Goyal2026-07-14
📈 economics

Dual Anchors: China-U.S. Factors Jointly Determining Global Gold and Crude Oil Pricing—Systematic Evidence Based on Exhaustive Testing with VIF Constraints

This study provides systematic evidence that global gold and crude oil pricing have evolved from a U.S.-centric single-anchor regime to a China-U.S. dual-anchor structure, where the China-U.S. yield spread serves as a pivotal, statistically significant factor in both markets, contingent on the existence of domestic currency-denominated benchmark contracts.

Shuiping Tang2026-07-14
📈 economics

Interest Rates Without an Anchor: Multi-Window Percentiles, Exhaustive Testing, and the Pricing Logic of the China-U.S. Yield Spread—On the Dual-Anchor Regime and Institutional Interface Theory of Global Asset Pricing

This paper proposes a multi-window historical percentile valuation framework that challenges equilibrium rate theories by demonstrating that sovereign bond "fair value" is rare and transient, while empirically verifying a "Dual-Anchor Regime" where the China-U.S. yield spread acts as a critical systematic driver for global asset pricing and institutional interface activation.

Shuiping Tang2026-07-14
📈 economics

The Anchor Shift: Reconstructing Global Exchange Rate Determination—The China-U.S. Yield Spread as a Regime Variable, with Systematic Alternatives to Interest Rate Parity, the Mundell-Fleming Model, and the Triffin Dilemma

This paper proposes and validates a "Dual-Anchor Exchange Rate Theory" demonstrating that the global exchange rate system has shifted from a U.S. dollar single anchor to a China-U.S. dual anchor driven by their yield spread, a finding that systematically invalidates traditional models like Interest Rate Parity and the Mundell-Fleming framework while establishing a new unified pricing mechanism across global assets.

Shuiping Tang2026-07-14
📈 economics

The Hierarchy of Factors: How Regime Variables Reset Market Pricing—Evidence from Exhaustive Testing Across 15 Global Equity Markets for a Factor Hierarchy Theory

This paper proposes and empirically validates "Factor Hierarchy Theory" across 15 global equity markets, demonstrating that interest rate spreads act as regime variables that determine the applicable pricing rules, thereby revealing that traditional asset pricing models are merely special cases of a unified field equation rather than parallel factors.

Shuiping Tang2026-07-14
📈 economics

The Regime Switch of Capital Flows: How the China-U.S. Yield Spread Drives Global Capital Reallocation in a Tiered Manner— Exhaustive Evidence Based on TIC Panel Data, ETF Flows, and China's Cross-Border Data

This paper proposes and empirically validates a "Regime Switch Theory" of capital flows, demonstrating that the China-U.S. yield spread acts as a structural threshold that determines whether global capital allocation is driven by U.S. market factors or gains independent pricing power through China-specific variables, thereby unifying diverse capital flow phenomena into a single "Unified Field" framework.

Shuiping Tang2026-07-14
📈 economics

When external audits miss startup fraud: auditor judgment under client pressure in Indonesia

This study utilizes a mixed-methods approach to reveal that while professional scepticism enhances fraud detection in Indonesia's digital startup sector, client pressure and over-reliance on management representations often lead auditors to reduce scrutiny and compromise evidence quality, ultimately hindering the identification of revenue manipulation.

I Made Dwi Hita Darmawan, Hasan Dincer, Serhat Yuksel2026-07-14