Virtual control arms for paediatric myopia trials: external validation of axial-elongation models
This study validates five published models for predicting untreated axial elongation in paediatric myopia, finding that while regional models accurately estimate mean growth for East Asian children at 6 and 12 months, they fail to provide reliable individual predictions or adequately represent South Asian populations, highlighting the tool's utility as a group-level instrument for future trial design rather than an individual predictor.