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427 papers

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From surveillance maturity to analytical readiness: an estimand-first framework for real-time outbreak analysis under imperfect data

This paper proposes an estimand-first framework for assessing analytical readiness in real-time outbreak analysis, demonstrating through Ebola data that the suitability of data for specific inferences depends on the interplay between surveillance maturity, epidemic informativeness, and decision-matched validation rather than simply on data volume or model convergence.

Johan G. L. Verheyden, Celestin Nzanzu Mudogo, Wolfgang Jacquet2026-09-25
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Methods for Development and Validation of Individual- Level Clinical Prediction Models for Multi-State Processes: A Methodological Scoping Review

This methodological scoping review systematically summarizes 105 studies on the development and validation of individual-level clinical prediction models for multi-state processes, highlighting substantial progress in model specification for Markov processes while identifying critical gaps in areas such as sample size determination, missing data handling, and comprehensive validation.

Chantelle Cornett, Alexander Pate, Victoria Palin, Glen P. Martin2026-09-25
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PolicyShift-AML: Auditing Selective-Label Policy Dependence in Anti-Money-Laundering Transaction Monitoring

The paper introduces PolicyShift-AML, a controlled auditing protocol that reveals how Anti-Money-Laundering models' offline performance often reflects institutional scrutiny policies rather than true event status, while proposing a non-negative positive-unlabeled estimator that significantly improves latent recall under policy-dependent label selection compared to standard baselines.

Muhammetalp Erdem2026-09-25
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The Interpretive Limits of Expected Goals: Model Dependence, Realization Variability, and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

This paper argues that Expected Goals (xG) should be understood as model-dependent conditional probabilities rather than deterministic outcomes, demonstrating through retrospective analysis of 308 team-match observations that significant divergence between xG and realized goals is inherent to probabilistic processes, and proposing a prospective experiment to evaluate how this uncertainty affects decision-making across different participant strata and information environments.

giovanni gallo2026-09-25
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The impact of the distributions of the latent and infectious periods on epidemic dynamics

This study demonstrates that the specific shapes and averages of latent and infectious period distributions, particularly when derived from viral-load data versus traditional geometric assumptions, fundamentally drive epidemic dynamics by influencing transmission timing, peak magnitude, and generation time through a "push-pull" mechanism.

Paulo C. Ventura, Allisandra G. Kummer, Yong-Dam Jeong, Shreeya Mhade, Shingo Iwami, Stefano Merler, Hongjie Yu, Keisuke (…)2026-09-25
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Truncated QLindley Distribution: Different Estimation Approaches with Application to Healthcare Data

This paper introduces the one-parameter Truncated Q-Lindley Distribution (TQLD) for modeling bounded continuous data, derives its key mathematical properties, evaluates nine classical estimation methods through simulation, and demonstrates its superior fit to healthcare data compared to existing models.

Anas F. I. Alharshan, Abdulrahman M. A. Aldawsari, Ahmed W. Shawki, Mohammed Elgarhy2026-09-24
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Forecast-Aware Explainable Hybrid Stacking for Forecasting Across Heterogeneous Indian Cities

This paper proposes an Explainable Hybrid Stacking Framework (EHSF) that integrates diverse feature engineering and consensus-based selection with a CatBoost meta-learner to achieve high-accuracy one-hour-ahead PM2.5 forecasting across three heterogeneous Indian cities, while acknowledging the need for further validation to confirm its generalizability.

Naveen Kumar K, Samundiswary P2026-09-24