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252 papers

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From First Principles to Latent-Space Alignment: A Process-Validity Theory of Delphi and the Foundations of Consensus under Uncertainty

This paper establishes a mathematically rigorous, operator-theoretic framework for the Delphi method that proves epistemic validity depends on specific structural properties of the consensus process, demonstrating through computational experiments that conventional agreement metrics often mask "model collapse" phenomena where superficial consensus coexists with catastrophic loss of legitimate disagreement and increased error.

Renjie He2026-09-02
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Design and analysis strategies to increase efficiency in malaria cluster-randomised trials by minimising between-cluster heterogeneity of outcomes

This study demonstrates that excluding outlier clusters at baseline and adjusting for baseline outcomes can significantly improve the efficiency of malaria cluster-randomised trials, particularly in settings where cluster-level outcomes exhibit strong temporal persistence.

Joseph Biggs, Joseph D. Challenger, Francisco Saute, Carlos Chaccour, Edgard D. Dabira, Umberto D’Alessandro, Sarah G. S (…)2026-09-02
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Statistical Robustness and Follow-up Completeness of Survival Outcomes in Phase III Breast Cancer Trials

This meta-epidemiologic study of 157 phase III breast cancer trials reveals that survival conclusions often lack statistical robustness, as the number of patients lost to follow-up frequently exceeds the fragility threshold, suggesting that statistical significance alone may overestimate the stability of treatment effects.

Yiru Hou, Dongyan Liu, Xuejing Zhang, Siqi Wang, Congtian Wu, Jiani Yuan, Xinxin Yan, Lanwei Guo, Huiyao Huang, Ning Li2026-09-02
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Distinguishing True Spillover Trends from Surveillance Bias in Detected Cases

This paper argues that distinguishing genuine zoonotic spillover trends from surveillance bias requires robust infrastructure rather than just modeling, demonstrating through simulations and a rabies case study that while trend direction can often be recovered, magnitude estimates are highly unreliable and model disagreement should be treated as a critical signal for reporting.

Kendra Gilbertson, Iris Holmes, Ana Bento, Yining Sun, Caylee Falvo, Daniel Becker, Zulma Rojas-Sereno, Amanda Vicente-S (…)2026-09-02
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Structural Exposure to Research Retraction in the Global Scientific Citation Network

This study utilizes OpenAlex data to analyze the global scientific citation network, revealing that retracted research is disproportionately concentrated in the core of the largest connected component and exhibits higher structural exposure, particularly in fields like biochemistry and genetics, suggesting that retracted works are more centrally embedded and cross-community connected than non-retracted works.

Zhang Bo2026-09-02
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Bayesian probabilistic heat-health warnings across all California neighborhoods for equitable resource allocation

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian spatial modeling framework that generates probabilistic, neighborhood-specific heat-health warnings across California by estimating varying temperature thresholds linked to emergency department visits, thereby enabling equitable resource allocation and forming the basis for the state's official CalHeatScore system.

John Molitor2026-09-01