stat papers | Gist.Science

Constructing a Spatial Public Service Availability Index (PSAI) for a Developing-Country Context: Development and Spatial Application in Bangladesh

This study develops a Spatial Public Service Availability Index (PSAI) for Bangladesh's 64 districts by integrating census and OpenStreetMap data across six service domains, revealing significant spatial disparities with Dhaka scoring highest and Rangamati lowest, while finding only weak evidence of statistically significant spatial clustering among high-availability districts.

Sk Md Jannatul Na, Ahad Kanak Prottay, Vargob Paul, Shazed Hossain Chamok, S M Tafsirul Islam2026-10-08

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A Novel Enhanced Weighted Product Approach Using Euclidean Normalization and Standard Deviation for Accurate Ranking

This paper introduces the WP-DISTA method, an enhanced Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach that integrates Euclidean normalization and standard deviation weighting to achieve fairer, more stable, and robust ranking results, as validated by high correlation with established methods and insensitivity to weight fluctuations.

Adhie Thyo Priandika, Sumanto Sumanto, Permata Permata, Setiawansyah Setiawansyah2026-10-08

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Proximal Empirical Bayes for Sparse Regression with Posterior Decision Support

This paper introduces a modular Proximal Empirical Bayes framework for sparse Gaussian regression that balances computational efficiency with posterior uncertainty quantification by separating shrinkage calibration from selection, utilizing stochastic approximation proximal gradient methods for both parameter estimation and posterior simulation under affine constraints.

Dimitrios Roxanas2026-10-08

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Convergence without connectivity: a difference-in-differences analysis of women’s mobile phone ownership and antenatal care coverage across 35 Indian states, 2015–2021

This study finds that while women's mobile phone ownership and antenatal care coverage both increased across 35 Indian states between 2015 and 2021, the observed convergence in care was driven by baseline coverage levels rather than a causal effect of mobile phone ownership, indicating that aggregate co-movement between connectivity and health outcomes should not be interpreted as causality.

Atantra Das Gupta, Yashpal Yadav2026-10-07

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Modelling HIV Drug Resistance Dynamics with Pre- and Post-Treatment Resistance Profiling in Botswana

This study employs mathematical modeling and Bayesian inference to demonstrate that implementing systematic HIV drug resistance profiling in Botswana significantly reduces transmission rates and AIDS progression by optimizing treatment regimens and lowering the effective reproduction number.

Refilwe Matlou, Tefa Kaisara, Farai Nyabadza2026-10-07

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Preregistered External Validation of Spatially Valid Conformal Prediction for Air-Pollution Exposure Mapping in China

This preregistered external validation demonstrates that spatially valid conformal prediction reliably quantifies uncertainty for air-pollution exposure maps across China's spatial dimensions but fails to maintain coverage under temporal hold-outs due to unanticipated post-2017 declines in PM2.5 levels.

Tian-Yu Wang2026-10-07

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The Impact of Academic Development on Students’ Academic Performance: Evidence from CEPS Modular Data

Using Bayesian BRPN and FBRPN procedures within stratified Cox proportional hazards models on CEPS data, this study identifies a consistent set of protective and risk factors—such as parental expectations, specific extracurricular activities, and homework habits—that significantly influence students' academic performance across Chinese, mathematics, and English, while noting that gender is a key predictor for language subjects but not mathematics.

Ruijuan Su, Xingjiao Du, Renjuan Zhu, Bojuan Zhao2026-10-07

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Forecasting Malaria Incidence in Uganda with ARIMAX: The Central Role of Precipitation and Temporal Dependence

This study employs an ARIMAX model to forecast malaria incidence in Uganda from 2000 to 2023, revealing that precipitation and temporal dependence are the most robust predictors while socioeconomic and intervention factors play a secondary role, ultimately projecting a gradual decline in cases through 2028.

Vaithiyalingam Subramanian Manjula, Kamole Cirimwami2026-10-07

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Subgroup AUROC-gap tests are not evidence of unfairness in clinical prediction models: case-mix differences make the equal-discrimination null false

This paper demonstrates that standard subgroup AUROC-gap tests are invalid for assessing fairness in clinical prediction models because differences in case-mix distributions naturally produce AUROC disparities even in perfectly fair models, whereas calibration tests remain robust for distinguishing true unfairness from geometric artifacts.

Rohith Reddy Bellibatlu, Manpreet Singh, Yash Jajoo, Abhishek Israni, Rahul Joshi2026-10-06

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When does validation design change the answer? A simulation study and two empirical applications in clustered longitudinal health data

This study demonstrates that while within-cluster correlation is necessary for row-level validation leakage, cluster size acts as the binding constraint in real-world data, suggesting that researchers should prioritize temporal validation and use pre-modelling diagnostics to determine when stricter validation designs are truly required.

HanYeol Nam, Jin Yoo, Doo-Hee Lee, Jeongyun Kim, Yoon Jeong Jang, Ku Kang2026-10-06

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