📊 statistics

Separating Biological and Choice Effects in Randomized Trials: Completing Causal Inference with β-Identification

This paper proposes a causal inference framework that decomposes randomized trial outcomes into biological effects (α\alpha) and preference-mediated choice effects (β\beta), arguing that formally identifying both components resolves ambiguity caused by nonadherence and crossover while providing a more complete understanding of treatment efficacy in preference-sensitive care.

Ogan Gurel, James Weinstein2026-08-20
📊 statistics

Probabilistic knowledge regimes in science: structural connectivity and semantic drift of scientific evolution

This paper introduces a large-scale probabilistic framework that integrates citation structures and semantic trajectories to identify five distinct latent regimes of scientific evolution, demonstrating that semantic drift is the strongest predictor of regime transitions and offering a more nuanced understanding of scientific dynamics beyond traditional citation impact.

Nishant Joshi Nishant2026-08-20
📊 statistics

Dataset-structured evidence synthesis for machine-learning prediction models: a methodological framework and worked example

This paper proposes and demonstrates a dataset-structured framework for synthesizing machine-learning prediction model evidence that redefines evidence units from publications to validation exercises, thereby correcting misrepresentations of independence and performance that arise from conventional pooling methods.

Osama Abdelhay, Da’ad Abdel-Hay, Abdullah F. Qasem, Taghreed Altamimi2026-08-20
📊 statistics

Blockwise Joint Conformal Prediction for Simultaneous Multi-Component Condition Monitoring of Hydraulic Systems

This paper proposes a blockwise joint conformal prediction framework that calibrates prediction sets over operational blocks rather than individual components, demonstrating on hydraulic system data that this approach achieves significantly higher simultaneous coverage for multi-component states compared to conventional marginal methods, albeit with backbone-dependent set sizes and strict reliance on exchangeability assumptions.

Bùi Thanh Lâm2026-08-20
📊 statistics

Methods Used in Developing the Adaptive Design Extension of the DELTA² Checklist for Enhancing Sample Size Reporting in Trial Grant Applications and Protocols

This paper describes the systematic development of the AD-DELTA2 checklist, an expert-endorsed extension of the DELTA2 guidance created through a multi-stage process of evidence review, Delphi surveys, and consensus meetings to improve the transparency and reproducibility of sample size reporting in adaptive design trial grant applications and protocols.

Qiang Zhang, Munyaradzi Dimairo, Jen Lewis, Steven A. Julious2026-08-19
📊 statistics

Polynomial-Time Exact Relabeling Fragility Analysis for Empirical Additive Treatment-by-Modifier Interactions

This paper presents an exact polynomial-time algorithm that computes the minimum cost of binary modifier-label changes required to alter the sign of an empirical additive treatment-by-modifier interaction, while explicitly clarifying that the method addresses a specific computational instance without establishing broader causal robustness or runtime superiority.

Jinlong Xu, Zhenghua Liang, Lijun Liang2026-08-19