Modeling and Forecasting the Declining Trajectory of Agricultural Land Per Capita in Somalia (1961–2050): A Comparative Time Series Approach
This study employs a comparative time series analysis of historical data (1961–2023) to demonstrate that Somalia's agricultural land per capita is on a critical, non-stationary downward trajectory, with the Theta model projecting a continued decline to unsustainable levels by 2050, thereby necessitating urgent policy interventions in land management and population planning.
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