earth_science papers | Gist.Science

Climate refugia and tailings-impacted areas: a spatial framework for prioritizing conservation and restoration of native bees in the Rio Doce watershed

This study presents a spatial framework for the Rio Doce watershed demonstrating that climate change will disproportionately reduce suitable habitats for native bees, with future climatically vulnerable areas increasingly overlapping with zones degraded by mining tailings, thereby necessitating targeted conservation and restoration efforts.

Bruce Dickinson, Flávio Mariano Machado Mota, Débora Lima-Santos, Walisson Kenedy-Siqueira, Geraldo Wilson Fernandes2026-07-20

📄 earth_science

Dissolution of Calcareous Mudstone by Indigenous Organic Acids during Thermal Maturation in Qaidam Basin

This study utilizes hydrous pyrolysis experiments to demonstrate that indigenous organic acids generated during thermal maturation in the Qaidam Basin drive a three-stage evolution of calcareous mudstone dissolution, which sequentially establishes a pore network, enhances porosity and permeability, and ultimately reorganizes reservoir space to favor long-term hydrocarbon preservation.

Yajun Shi, Wei Yang, Yongqiang Qu, Li Tang, Xiao Guo2026-07-20

📄 earth_science

Quantifying the spatiotemporal coupling effects of Shrinkage development policy and climate change on surface runoff

This study develops an integrated framework combining Random Forest, PLUS, and SWAT models to quantify the spatiotemporal coupling effects of shrinkage development policies and climate change on surface runoff, revealing that while ecological conservation policies help mitigate risks, climate change exerts a significantly stronger influence on runoff than land-use regulation alone.

Xiangbo Liu, Yue Lai, Zimeng Li, Siyao Liu, Zheran Zhai, Rui Yu, Di Li, Rui Huo, Wenzhuo Sun, xiaoyu Ge2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

An Extreme-Value Framework for Separating Rainfall Occurrence and Severity: Regime-Dependent Insights for Risk Assessment

This study proposes a diagnostic framework that separates rainfall occurrence and severity to reveal that while event frequency is consistently driven by atmospheric moisture transport across India, exceedance magnitude follows highly localized, regime-dependent patterns, thereby improving the physical interpretability and accuracy of nonstationary risk assessment models.

Shubham Dixit, Kamlesh Kumar Pandey2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Nature-dependent lifeways are widely exposed to ecological novelty

This study reveals that over 1.76 billion people globally, particularly those in rural areas dependent on nature, are already exposed to high levels of ecological novelty that diminishes ecosystem services, underscoring the urgent need to integrate these novel socio-ecological conditions into future conservation and sustainability planning.

Matthew Kerr, Celina Aznarez, Alejandro Ordonez, Felix Riede, Saxbee Affleck, Jens-Christian Svenning2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Adaptation Lock-in Shifts Justice from Allocation to Sequencing

Using tree canopy data from Greater Sydney, this study demonstrates that distinct justice principles create spatial commitments leading to adaptation lock-in, which shifts the primary policy challenge from equitable resource allocation to governing the procedural rules of decision sequencing over time.

Amir Hossein Pakizeh, Nader Naderpajouh2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Methane emissions from inland waters are constrained by salinity

This study demonstrates that salinity acts as a critical environmental filter in arid and semi-arid inland waters by reducing dissolved organic carbon availability and suppressing methanogenic microbial communities, thereby significantly constraining methane emissions.

Fei Yang, Yang Deng, Xiang Zhu, Lei Xie, Xiaoguang Xu, Yuying Ma, Fuquan Peng, Yaoqing Peng, Shunmei Zhu, Qinglong Yin (…)2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

What Controls Severe Aerosol Episodes over Cairo, Egypt (2010–2025): A Meteorological and Back-Trajectory Analysis

This study identifies synoptic-scale meteorological drivers, specifically strengthened low-to-mid-level winds, a surface pressure deficit, and a dominant Libya/North Africa transport pathway, as the primary controls on severe aerosol episodes over Cairo, distinguishing them from local boundary-layer effects.

Michael Nagy Riad Kamel Abd AlMalk2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

Dry Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Is Increasing in Northern Canada Due to the Increasing Prevalence of Favorable Thermodynamic Environments

This study reveals that the unprecedented 2023 wildfire season in northern Canada was driven by a multi-decadal intensification of specific thermodynamic conditions—namely a warm, deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with humid mid-troposphere and dry sub-cloud air—that maximize dry lightning efficiency, a trend projected to increase regional dry lightning potential by 50% by 2100 under high-emissions scenarios.

Jinil Bae, Simon Wang, Jinho Yoon, Rackhun Son2026-07-17

📄 earth_science

The importance of large trees as carbon sinks in UK woodlands

This study demonstrates that conventional allometric methods significantly underestimate aboveground carbon in UK woodlands by failing to account for the disproportionate contribution of large trees, suggesting that terrestrial LiDAR is a superior tool for accurate carbon mapping and the development of improved size-to-mass models.

Phil Wilkes, Guilherme Castro, Mathilda Digby, Isabel Openshaw, Robert Barber, Gary Egan, Justin Moat, Rebecca Roberts (…)2026-07-16

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