Beyond Vulnerability: Measuring External Resilience in the Global Economy, 1998–2024
This paper introduces and validates the External Resilience Index (ERI), a multidimensional framework measuring 196 economies' capacity to absorb and adapt to external shocks through buffer and structural-adaptive resilience, demonstrating its effectiveness as a diagnostic tool for sovereign debt distress and IMF programme participation while clarifying its role as a complement to, rather than a universal predictor of, financial crises.