📈 economics

Do Aligned States Deliver for SC/ST? Central Welfare Transfers, Partisan Alignment, and Reservation Utilisation in India, 2000–2022

This paper analyzes Indian state-level data from 2000–2022 to find that while partisan alignment between state and central governments increases SC/ST-targeted welfare transfers, the "alignment premium" for these specific funds is significantly smaller than for general transfers and fails to translate into proportional improvements in reservation outcomes due to binding demand-side and administrative constraints.

Kunal Dhanda2026-07-23
📈 economics

Banking Fragility, Credit Allocation, and Private Sector Development in Algeria: Evidence from a Stock-Flow Consistent Financial Model

This paper employs a Stock-Flow Consistent macroeconomic model to demonstrate that Algeria's private sector underdevelopment stems from banking fragility and credit misallocation driven by state-directed lending, showing that credit liberalization and interest-rate reforms could significantly boost private investment and financial stability compared to maintaining current fiscal dominance.

Sid Ahmed ZENAGUI2026-07-23
📈 economics

Breaking the Center-Periphery Trap? Return Migration Entrepreneurship and Intra-County Spatial Restructuring in China

This paper utilizes a quasi-natural experiment in China to demonstrate that the National Return Migration Entrepreneurship Pilot Program breaks the core-periphery trap by simultaneously boosting aggregate economic growth and reducing intra-county spatial inequality through mechanisms like urban-rural income convergence and digital infrastructure amplification.

BO XU, Yingde Hu, Kunpeng Xu, Gang Zou2026-07-22
📈 economics

Dynamic Carbon-Budget Black--Litterman Portfolio Optimization under ETS Transition Risk: EU and UK Historical Learning Cases and a Thai Pre-ETS Application

This paper proposes a dynamic carbon-budget Black-Litterman framework that integrates market priors with carbon-transition views and EUA futures hedging to effectively manage transition risk for investors in both established EU/UK markets and pre-ETS environments like Thailand, demonstrating that such a risk-control overlay improves portfolio resilience during carbon tightening while acknowledging potential costs during policy relaxation.

Wanyok Atisattapong, Pasin Marupanthorn2026-07-22
📈 economics

Dynamic Effects of Prefecture-Level Industrial Structure on Labor Migration: Evidence from Chinese Census Data

Using Chinese census data and a conditional logit model, this study reveals that while prefecture-level nonagricultural industrial structure has historically driven labor migration through wage and employment opportunities, its influence followed an inverted-U pattern from 1996 to 2015, peaking before 2010 and subsequently weakening due to rising living costs and diminishing marginal wage gains.

Xiaolan Yang, Xingzhi Yao, Xuankai Zhao, Xinyue Zhu2026-07-22
📈 economics

Digital Financial Inclusion and Urban Household Consumption: Spatial Spillovers and City Heterogeneity in the Yangtze River Delta, China

This study analyzes panel data from 41 cities in China's Yangtze River Delta (2011–2023) to demonstrate that digital financial inclusion significantly boosts urban household consumption, with effects being stronger in non-core and smaller cities and exhibiting geographically localized spatial spillovers that support the need for differentiated, place-sensitive policy interventions.

Youzhou Wei, Rongdong Huang, Kunlin Tang2026-07-22