econ papers | Gist.Science

Time-Varying Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interaction and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia using a TVP-VAR-SV Approach

Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) framework on Indonesian data from 2000 to 2025, this study finds that inflation dynamics have increasingly shifted from monetary to fiscal drivers, particularly following the post-pandemic fiscal expansion, thereby validating the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and suggesting that effective monetary normalization requires coordinated fiscal consolidation.

Abul Hasan Umar, Firman Taufik, Sulaiha Ali2026-06-30

📈 economics

An Empirical Assessment of Credit Constraints in Institutional Agricultural Credit Access: Evidence from Farmer’s Perspective

Based on survey data from Assam, this study identifies supply-side and infrastructural barriers as more critical than demand-side factors in limiting farmers' access to institutional agricultural credit, recommending policy reforms to simplify procedures and strengthen financial infrastructure to boost investment and revenue.

Dikshita Deb, Arup Roy2026-06-29

📈 economics

Evidence of the Existence and Significance of Political Business Cycles in South Africa

Using a quantile regression framework, this study finds that South Africa exhibits a fragmented political business cycle where fiscal authorities pursue expansionary policies during elections while monetary authorities adopt contractionary measures to maintain stability, with both effects being moderate, heterogeneous, and significantly constrained by institutional quality and government effectiveness.

Khwazi Magubane2026-06-29

📈 economics

An analysis of the global networks of portfolio investment

This paper analyzes global portfolio investment networks using 2024 data to reveal the dominant role of the United States and offshore financial centers, highlighting a significant post-2014 increase in equity and fund shares alongside divergent trends in debt securities that reflect the lingering effects of the sovereign debt crisis on European markets.

Antonio Sánchez Serrano2026-06-29

📈 economics

Consumer Perception and Policy Intervention in Large-scale Implementation of Advanced Autonomous Driving: A Dynamic Evolutionary Study Based on Agent-Based Modeling

This study employs agent-based modeling to simulate the dynamic evolution of consumer trust and acceptance of advanced autonomous driving under various technological, social, and policy factors, offering data-driven insights for optimizing product strategies and regulatory interventions.

hao zhang, Peifeng Zhu2026-06-29

📈 economics

Deep Multinomial Probability Models for Market Segmentation: An Artificial Intelligence Framework

This paper proposes a deep multinomial probability framework that integrates neural networks with multinomial modeling to overcome the limitations of traditional linear methods by effectively capturing complex nonlinear relationships in high-dimensional market segmentation tasks.

Rittika Bhattacharya, Sthitadhi Das2026-06-29

📈 economics

Nonlinear effects of lending rates on credit risk in microfinance institutions: evidence from Peruvian municipal savings and credit banks

This study analyzes Peruvian microfinance institutions from 2021 to 2025 and finds a U-shaped relationship between lending rates and credit risk, identifying an optimal rate of 29.21% beyond which further rate increases significantly deteriorate portfolio quality.

Felix Segundo Castillo-Vera, Gloria Tavita Mantilla-Varas, Luis Alberto Muñoz-Díaz2026-06-29

📈 economics

Cash transfers as a social protection tool and their ripple effects in rural Africa: A scoping review from 17 countries in Africa

This scoping review of 40 studies across 17 African countries finds that while cash transfers effectively stimulate local economies and boost employment for ultra-poor households, they also generate complex ripple effects such as inflation and social tensions, underscoring the need for careful recipient selection to maximize benefits and minimize negative spillovers.

Emefa Tonorgbevi AWUKU, Kwame Asamoah KWARTENG, Stephen Elvis AMPAH2026-06-29

📈 economics

Regional Economic Impact of Chinese FDI in South Asia

This study utilizes diverse econometric models on 2004–2023 panel data to demonstrate that rising Chinese FDI in South Asia significantly boosts per capita income, a positive effect that is strengthened by political stability and anti-corruption measures but weakened by military expenditure.

Noorulhaq Ghafoori, Jawid Ahmad Gulistani2026-06-29

📈 economics

Efficient Threshold-based Model for Scientific Productivity Evaluation: a Proposal

This paper proposes a streamlined, privacy-compliant model for evaluating scientific productivity in Italian universities by leveraging existing National Scientific Qualification thresholds to generate real-time, adaptable, and transparent indicators for both institutional governance and individual researcher tracking.

Giuseppe Sergioli, Francesco Bianchini, Pierluigi Graziani2026-06-29

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