Data-Driven Change-Point SEIR Modeling of the 2025 COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in China: Model Comparison, Robustness Analysis, and Residual Diagnostics
This study demonstrates that a data-driven piecewise SEIR model with a structural change point on May 24, 2025, significantly outperforms a constant-rate model in describing China's 2025 COVID-19 epidemic wave, revealing a robust transition from transmission expansion to contraction rather than relying on precise biological parameter estimates.