Cross-Sectional Age Comparisons Understate Individual Performance Decline in Endurance Athletes: A Within-Runner Analysis of 264,213 Boston Marathon Finishes
By analyzing a longitudinal panel of over 15,000 Boston Marathon runners, this study demonstrates that traditional cross-sectional comparisons significantly underestimate individual endurance performance decline—by approximately 50% at age 65—because they fail to account for the selective attrition of slower athletes who drop out of competition over time.