🔬 physics

The role of Projects of Common Interest in reaching Europe's energy policy targets

This study demonstrates that Projects of Common and Mutual Interest (PCI-PMI) for hydrogen and CO2 infrastructure are not immediately essential in 2030 but become critical from 2040 onward to significantly reduce annual system costs, optimize renewable capacity, and lower reliance on direct air capture, thereby facilitating a cost-effective transition to Europe's 2050 climate-neutrality goals.

Original authors: Bobby Xiong, Iegor Riepin, Tom Brown

Published 2026-02-04

📖 5 min read🧠 Deep dive

CC BY 4.0

Original authors: Bobby Xiong, Iegor Riepin, Tom Brown

Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ✨ This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer

Imagine Europe as a giant, complex kitchen trying to cook a massive meal (a climate-neutral economy) by the year 2050. To do this, they need to stop using fossil fuels (the old, smoky stove) and switch to clean energy ingredients like wind, solar, green hydrogen, and carbon capture.

This paper asks a simple but crucial question: Is it worth building a specific list of "super-highways" for energy and carbon right now, even if we aren't sure exactly how much we'll need them in the future?

These "super-highways" are called Projects of Common Interest (PCI-PMI). They are large pipelines for hydrogen and carbon dioxide that the European Commission has officially flagged as important.

Here is what the study found, explained through everyday analogies:

1. The Problem: The "Chicken-and-Egg" Dilemma

Building a pipeline is expensive. You don't want to build a highway if no one is driving on it. But you also can't build the cars (industries) if there's no highway to drive them on.

The Paper's Approach: Instead of waiting to see if the highway is needed, the researchers modeled two paths:
- Path A: Build the specific "Super Highways" (PCI-PMI) now.
- Path B: Don't build them; just build whatever is cheapest at the moment, or build new highways later if needed.

2. The Big Reveal: Building Early Saves Money

The study found that building these specific pipelines early is a "no-regret" move.

The Analogy: Think of it like buying a family car. If you wait until you have a baby to buy a car, you might have to rent a very expensive taxi or take a bus that doesn't fit everyone. If you buy the car a little early, it costs money upfront, but it saves you a fortune in the long run because you aren't paying for expensive alternatives later.
The Result: By 2040, having these pipelines in place saves the European energy system over €26 billion every year. Without them, the system has to pay a "tax" of extra costs to make up for the missing connections.

3. How the Pipelines Work (The Delivery System)

The paper explains that these pipelines act as the delivery trucks for the new energy economy:

Hydrogen Pipelines: Imagine the wind and sun are strongest in the north (like Denmark) and the south (like Spain). But the factories that need the fuel are in the middle (like Germany). The hydrogen pipelines are the trucks that move the cheap, clean fuel from the sunny/windy places to the busy factories.
Carbon Pipelines: Imagine factories that produce carbon emissions (like cement plants). Instead of letting that smoke go into the air, these pipes act like vacuum hoses, sucking the carbon up and sending it to the ocean floor (offshore storage) to be buried safely.

4. What Happens if You Wait? (The "Regret")

The researchers asked: "What if we build the plan for the pipelines, but then we get delayed and they don't open until 2045 instead of 2040?"

The Consequence: This delay is very expensive. It's like ordering a pizza for a party, but the delivery is late. You end up having to order expensive takeout from five different places to feed everyone, or you have to cook a terrible meal yourself.
The Cost: If these pipelines are delayed past 2040, Europe could lose up to €24.2 billion per year.
The "Desperate" Fix: Without the pipes, the system is forced to use the most expensive, inefficient tools available.
- Instead of sending carbon to the ocean via a pipe, they have to use Direct Air Capture (DAC). This is like trying to clean a messy room by sucking the dust out of the air with a tiny vacuum instead of just sweeping the floor. It works, but it costs a lot more energy and money.
- Instead of sending green hydrogen from Spain to Germany via a pipe, they have to make it locally using natural gas (a dirty method) or build thousands of small, inefficient local generators.

5. The "Perfect" vs. The "Real"

The study compared the "Super Highways" (PCI-PMI) against a "Perfect World" scenario where a genius planner could build any pipeline anywhere, instantly, at the perfect spot.

The Finding: The "Super Highways" aren't perfectly optimal (the genius planner could theoretically save a tiny bit more money). However, they are close enough to be a huge win.
Why it matters: The "Super Highways" have a secret advantage: Political Support. Because the EU government has already approved them, they are more likely to actually get built, get funding, and get permits quickly. The "Perfect World" plan might be cheaper on paper, but it might never happen because it's too hard to get permission to build.

Summary

The paper concludes that Europe's plan to build these specific hydrogen and carbon pipelines is a smart investment.

Without them: The transition to clean energy becomes much more expensive, relies on clunky, expensive technology (like giant air vacuums), and is slower.
With them: The system runs smoother, cheaper, and more reliably.
The Warning: If these projects are delayed, the bill for Europe's energy future goes up significantly. It is better to build the "highways" now than to pay for expensive "taxis" later.