Individual- and Community-Level Determinants of Household Electricity Access in Somalia: A Multilevel Analysis of the 2020 Somali Health and Demographic Survey

The Big Picture: A Nation in the Dark

Imagine Somalia as a giant house with 15,000 rooms (representing the 15,000 households surveyed). The researchers wanted to know: How many of these rooms have a working light switch?

The answer is sobering. Only about 3 out of every 10 rooms have electricity. The other 7 rooms are in the dark. While the country has plenty of sunshine (solar energy), the "wiring" to get that power into homes is missing, too expensive, or broken in many places.

How They Did the Study

The researchers didn't just guess; they looked at a massive, national "household census" called the 2020 Somali Health and Demographic Survey (SHDS).

Think of the data like a giant, multi-layered cake:

• The Layers: The data is organized by region (the whole cake), then by specific neighborhoods or clusters (the slices), and finally by individual families (the crumbs).
• The Tool: Because the data is stacked like this, the researchers used a special mathematical tool called "Multilevel Analysis." Imagine trying to understand why some people are tall. You can't just look at their genes (individual); you also have to look at the nutrition available in their specific village (community). This study looked at both the "genes" of the household and the "nutrition" of the neighborhood simultaneously.

Who Has the Lights On? (The Findings)

The study found that electricity access isn't random; it follows a very specific pattern, like a map of who gets served first and who gets left behind.

1. The "Money" Factor (Wealth)
This was the biggest predictor. Think of electricity in Somalia like a VIP club.

• If you are in the "poorest" group, your chances of getting in are almost zero.
• If you are in the "richest" group, your chances are sky-high.
• The study found that wealthier families are thousands of times more likely to have power than the poorest ones. In a country where electricity is mostly sold by private companies using expensive diesel fuel, if you can't afford the entry fee or the monthly bill, you stay in the dark.

2. The "Family Size" Surprise
Usually, we think bigger families are harder to support. But here, bigger families were more likely to have electricity.

• The Analogy: Imagine a large family as a loud, busy restaurant. They have a strong need for power to cook, light up the space, and keep everyone connected. This urgency might push them to find a way to get connected, or perhaps larger families are more likely to be settled in one spot rather than moving around, making it easier to wire them up.

3. The "City vs. Countryside" Divide
This is the starkest difference.

• Urban (City) homes: They are like houses on a main street with power lines running right past them.
• Rural homes: They are like cabins deep in the woods. The power lines stop miles away.
• The study showed that living in a rural area makes you 84% less likely to have electricity compared to someone in the city. The infrastructure simply hasn't reached the countryside.

4. The "Education and Media" Connection

• Education: Families where the head of the house went to school were more likely to have power. Education acts like a key; it opens doors to better jobs (more money) and helps people understand the benefits of electricity.
• Media: If a family listens to the radio or watches TV, they are more likely to have electricity. It's a two-way street: You need electricity to watch TV, but knowing about the benefits of power (through media) might also motivate people to get connected.

5. The "Water and Phone" Twist

• Water: If a family has clean, piped water, they are much more likely to have electricity. It's like a "package deal." If a neighborhood has been upgraded to have good water pipes, it usually means the government or developers have invested there, so the power lines are likely there too.
• Mobile Phones: Here is a surprise. The study found that families with mobile phones were actually less likely to have home electricity.
  • The Analogy: Think of a mobile phone as a "portable battery." In Somalia, you can charge your phone at a neighbor's house, a shop, or a solar kiosk. So, a family can have a phone without having a lightbulb in their own ceiling. The phone doesn't prove they have home power; it just proves they have a way to charge their device elsewhere.

6. The "Location" Lottery
Where you live matters immensely.

• Families in the Awdal region had the best luck.
• Families in Bakool had the worst luck (their odds were nearly 97% lower than Awdal).
• It's like a lottery where your ticket is your zip code. Some regions have been wired; others are still waiting.

What the Math Said (The "Random Effects")

The researchers used a special test to see how much of the "darkness" was caused by the specific neighborhood versus the specific family.

• They found that 95% of the difference in who has power and who doesn't is due to the neighborhood (the cluster).
• The Metaphor: Imagine a dark room. Whether you have a flashlight depends less on your personal wallet and more on whether the room you are standing in has a light switch installed. The study proved that the "neighborhood" factor is the dominant force.

The Conclusion

The paper concludes that Somalia is still in the dark for most of its people. To fix this, you can't just tell poor people to "get a light." You have to fix the infrastructure (build the lines to rural areas), fix the economy (make electricity affordable), and fix the regional inequality (ensure the "Bakool" regions get the same attention as the "Awdal" regions).

The study suggests that until the government and private companies address these deep-rooted inequalities, the "light switch" will remain out of reach for the majority of Somali households.