Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Immovable Cultural Heritage in Beijing's Ecological Conservation Area Across Climate Scenarios
This study develops a GIS-based flood vulnerability assessment framework using the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram and SCS-CN method to evaluate 1,969 immovable cultural heritage sites across Beijing's Ecological Conservation Area, revealing that climate change will significantly increase flood risks—particularly in mountainous districts and for undesignated sites—and validating the model's accuracy through retrospective analysis of July 2025 flood damages.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
The ancient walls, tombs, and temples of a city are not merely stones from the past; they are physical records of human history that cannot be moved. When the climate shifts, bringing heavier rains and more frequent storms, these fixed landmarks face a growing threat. Unlike a museum artifact that can be packed away, a historic site must weather the flood where it stands. Scientists who study how to protect these places have long known that some sites are more at risk than others, but figuring out exactly which ones requires looking at three things at once: how likely a place is to be flooded, how easily the specific building would be damaged by water, and how well the local community can respond to help it. This kind of assessment is becoming urgent as extreme weather events become more common, forcing researchers to ask not just where the water will go, but which pieces of our shared history will be left standing when it recedes.
In a recent study focused on Beijing, researchers set out to map this risk across a vast, rugged region known as the city's Ecological Conservation Area. This area, which covers the mountainous north and northeast of the municipality, is home to nearly two thousand registered cultural heritage sites, ranging from famous sections of the Great Wall to lesser-known ancient ruins. The team built a new way to measure flood danger that combines computer models of future rainfall with a detailed inventory of these historic sites. They did not just look at where the water might flow; they also considered the age and material of each structure and the ability of local authorities to reach and repair them after a disaster. By running their models against three different possible futures for the climate, they created a clear picture of which sites are most vulnerable and how that danger might change over time.
The researchers found that as the climate warms, the flood risk to these historic sites will almost certainly rise. Under current conditions, the average risk level for the nearly two thousand sites was relatively low, with the vast majority facing minimal danger. However, when the team simulated future climate scenarios, the average risk level climbed, and the number of sites facing high or very high danger grew significantly. In the most severe future scenario they tested, the number of sites at serious risk jumped from just over one hundred to nearly three hundred. The danger is not spread evenly across the landscape; it is concentrated in the mountainous river valleys of four specific districts: Pinggu, Yanqing, Huairou, and Miyun. These areas, characterized by steep slopes and dense river networks, are where the water moves fastest and where the historic sites are most exposed.
What makes this study particularly compelling is that its predictions align with real-world events that happened just before the research was completed. In July 2025, a massive flood struck Beijing, damaging fifty-seven cultural heritage sites. The researchers checked their maps and found that every single one of those damaged sites was located in the four districts their models had identified as high-risk. Furthermore, two specific sites that showed the largest predicted increase in danger—the Gubeikou Town Wall and the Shangying Castle—were among those that suffered actual damage during that flood, with parts of their walls collapsing. This coincidence between the computer simulation and the physical reality suggests that the method used to identify these risks is reliable and points to the specific locations that need the most urgent attention.
The study also revealed that the type of protection a site receives does not always guarantee safety. While the most famous, nationally protected sites generally have better resources to defend them, the researchers found that sites protected at the city or county level, as well as those with no official designation at all, faced the highest average risk in the future scenarios. This is partly because these sites often lack the robust management systems and emergency funding that the top-tier sites enjoy. In fact, the sites with no official designation make up more than two-thirds of the total inventory, meaning that a huge portion of the region's cultural heritage is potentially exposed to rising flood levels without a dedicated safety net. The data suggests that as climate change intensifies, the burden on local managers to protect these unmarked or less famous sites will grow substantially.
Ultimately, the work provides a practical tool for decision-makers who must decide where to spend limited conservation funds. By identifying the specific points where the risk is highest and where the danger is growing the fastest, the study allows authorities to prioritize inspections and repairs before a disaster strikes. The researchers emphasize that this approach is not a perfect crystal ball; it relies on simulations and general data, and it may not capture every nuance of how water flows down a steep mountain slope. However, by combining flood modeling with the specific characteristics of the heritage sites and the capacity of local communities to respond, the study offers a clear, evidence-based path forward. It shows that while the threat of flooding is increasing, knowing exactly where that threat is concentrated is the first step toward preserving these irreplaceable pieces of history for the future.
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