Projected Climate Change in Jordan: A Case Study of Jerash Region

The world is warming, and the air is holding more heat than it used to. This shift is not just about hotter days; it is changing how rain falls and how water moves through the ground. In places where water is already scarce, these changes can be devastating. Scientists use computer models to look ahead, trying to understand how different levels of pollution might alter the climate in specific regions. They often focus on three main things: how hot it gets, how much rain falls, and how much of that rain soaks into the earth to refill underground water stores. For communities that rely on these underground reserves to drink and to grow food, knowing the future is a matter of survival.

In the Jerash region of northern Jordan, a team of researchers has looked closely at what the future holds for this vital landscape. Jerash sits in a semi-arid zone, meaning it has hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters. For generations, local farmers and residents have depended on the seasonal rains to soak into the soil and recharge the groundwater that feeds their springs and wells. However, the climate is shifting. To understand exactly how, the researchers used a tool called the Statistical DownScaling Model. Think of this tool as a way to take broad, global weather forecasts and zoom in until they fit the specific streets and fields of Jerash. By feeding the model historical weather data from five different local stations, the team could simulate what the climate might look like from 2024 all the way to the year 2100 under three different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions.

The results paint a clear and concerning picture. Across all the stations they studied, the temperature is projected to rise steadily. The warming is expected to be most intense if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at a high rate. In this worst-case scenario, the highest temperatures in the region could climb by more than two degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The nights are also getting warmer, which reduces the natural cooling that plants and soil usually experience. This constant heat puts extra stress on the environment, making it harder for crops to grow and increasing the amount of water that evaporates from the soil.

At the same time, the rain is expected to become much scarcer. The simulations show a gradual but significant drop in annual rainfall across the entire region. In the high-emission scenario, some areas could see their rainfall decrease by more than 65 percent. This is not just a little less rain; it is a fundamental shift in the water cycle. The wet seasons are projected to become shorter and less reliable, while the dry periods stretch out longer. This reduction in rainfall has a direct and immediate impact on the underground water reserves. Since less rain is falling, less water is able to soak into the ground to refill the aquifers.

By the year 2100, under the most severe emission scenario, the study suggests that the amount of water recharging the groundwater could drop by up to 60 percent compared to current levels. This is a critical finding for a region that is already facing water scarcity. The researchers found that the decline in recharge is tightly linked to the loss of rainfall. If the rain stops coming, the underground reservoirs stop filling up, yet the demand for water from agriculture and households remains high. This creates a dangerous imbalance where the water is being used faster than nature can replace it.

The study does not just highlight the problem; it also points to the specific nature of the threat. The changes are not uniform; some stations, like the one in Burma, are projected to lose the most rainfall, while others might see slightly different patterns. This level of detail is important because it shows that the impact of climate change is felt differently even within a small area. The researchers emphasize that relying on the current methods of farming and water management will not work in this new climate. The old patterns of rain and recharge are disappearing.

To cope with this future, the authors suggest that the region must adapt. They propose that local authorities and farmers need to start using water more efficiently, perhaps by switching to irrigation systems that waste less water. They also recommend building more infrastructure to catch and store rainwater when it does fall, so it can be used during the long dry spells. Monitoring the groundwater levels more closely will also be essential to know exactly how much water is left. The study concludes that without these changes, the Jerash region faces a future where water becomes increasingly difficult to secure, threatening both the local agriculture and the daily lives of its people. The path forward requires accepting that the climate has changed and preparing for a world where water is even more precious than it is today.