📄 earth science

Probability-based storylines of unprecedented tropical cyclones impacting Southern Africa

This study presents the first comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of future tropical cyclone risks in Southern Africa, utilizing probability-based storylines to illustrate unprecedented scenarios like Category 5 landfalls and guide adaptation strategies for unprecedented events.

Elizabeth Kendon, Joshua Macholl, Daniel Green, Helen Titley, Mikki Korodimou, Alexander Baker, Rachel James, Alan Kenne (…)2026-10-15
📄 earth science

Beavers and marmots in a Neanderthal cave palimpsest: small-prey consumption at Valdegoba Cave (Burgos, Spain)

This study presents a zooarchaeological analysis of a rich large-rodent assemblage from Valdegoba Cave, demonstrating that while the accumulation resulted from a complex mix of natural and carnivore processes, the presence of cut marks on beavers and marmots provides rare evidence of Neanderthal exploitation of these medium-sized prey species during the late MIS 6 to early MIS 5 transition.

Ona Redon, J. Carlos Díez, César Laplana2026-10-15
📄 earth science

Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Yola Metropolis, Nigeria, Using Random Forest, Terrain-Derived Predictors, and Nested Spatial Cross-Validation

This study develops a Random Forest-based flood susceptibility map for Yola Metropolis, Nigeria, using terrain and land-use predictors with nested spatial cross-validation to identify elevation as the dominant factor and classify 92.24% of the area as low-to-moderate risk, providing a reproducible screening tool for disaster planning in data-constrained urban settings.

Temitope Emmanuel Paul, Adedayo Kelvin ADELEKE, Peace Olubukunmi AWOLEYE, Akintunde Ayo AKINSE2026-10-15
📄 earth science

Synthetic Aperture Radar, Multi-Source Data Fusion, and Machine Learning for Aboveground Biomass and Carbon Stock Estimation: A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Analysis

This systematic review and bibliometric analysis synthesizes 68 studies from 2004 to 2026 to demonstrate how integrating Synthetic Aperture Radar, multi-source remote sensing, and machine learning has advanced aboveground biomass and carbon stock estimation, while highlighting a critical research gap in applying these robust, scalable frameworks to heterogeneous urban tree environments.

Temitope Emmanuel Paul, Adedayo Adeleke, Abel Ramoelo2026-10-15
📄 earth science

Regional increases in tornadic activity through midcentury due to global warming

High-resolution dynamical model simulations project that under a high-emissions scenario, the United States will experience increased tornadic activity and inter-annual variability by midcentury, particularly in the Midwest during an earlier spring peak driven by rising convective available potential energy (CAPE).

Songning Wang, Robert Trapp, John Allen, Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Eric Robinson2026-10-15
📄 earth science

Cumulative Climate Vulnerability at Subsidized Housing Sites in the United States: The Case of Choice Neighborhoods Initiatives

This study reveals that subsidized housing sites within the Choice Neighborhoods Initiative exhibit significantly higher cumulative climate vulnerability than surrounding areas, driven primarily by socioeconomic disadvantage and chronic disease burdens rather than hazard exposure alone, underscoring the need for resilience strategies that integrate social and health improvements with physical mitigation.

Yi Wang, Yu-Tsen Pai, Alexandre Augusto de Paula da Silva, Milena Franco Silva, Catalina Freixas, Lindsay Underhill, Rod (…)2026-10-14
📄 earth science

Water Quality Under Stress: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Climate Impact: Evidence from Refugee Camps in Cox’s Bazar District, Bangladesh (2016-2024)

This study addresses the challenge of integrating heterogeneous data to analyze how population pressure, land-use change, and climate anomalies impact water quality in Cox's Bazar refugee camps, resulting in the release of a harmonized, open-access database following FAIR principles.

Maurizio Teobaldelli, Anna Rosińska, Caterina Cacciatori, Bernd Manfred Gawlik, Jan Loeschner2026-10-14
📄 earth science

Household disaster preparedness, environmental stewardship and climate-smart water management in rural Kabarole District, Uganda: a cross-sectional study with implications for climate-resilient WASH governance

This cross-sectional study of 620 households in rural Uganda reveals that while disaster exposure is substantial and pro-environmental attitudes are strong, actual preparedness and climate-smart water management practices remain low, with disaster-response training and early-warning awareness identified as key drivers for improving household readiness.

Stephen Charles Olet, Sam Ongom, Shine Nuwasasira, Uthman Muluga Wandera, Ivan Ssebandeke, Angella Namatovu, Henry Sendi (…)2026-10-14