I Want to Believe (but the Vocabulary Changed): Measuring the Semantic Structure and Evolution of Conspiracy Theories
This paper analyzes 169.9 million Reddit comments from 2012 to 2022 to demonstrate that conspiracy theories function as coherent semantic objects that evolve non-uniformly over time through patterns of stability, expansion, contraction, and replacement, revealing dynamics that traditional keyword-based approaches fail to capture.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
The Big Idea: Tracking the Shape, Not Just the Name
Imagine you are watching a river flow. If you only look at the water molecules (the specific words people use), you might think the river is changing every second because the water is constantly moving. But if you look at the riverbed (the underlying meaning), you might see that the river is actually flowing in the exact same path, just with different water.
This paper is about studying conspiracy theories not by the specific words people shout, but by the shape of the ideas they hold. The researchers wanted to answer two big questions:
- Do conspiracy theories actually have their own "neighborhoods" in language, distinct from normal political talk?
- How do these neighborhoods change over time? Do they stay the same, shrink, grow, or completely move to a new location?
The Toolkit: A "Word Map"
To do this, the researchers didn't just count how many times people said "Pizzagate" or "Deep State." Instead, they used a tool called Word Embeddings.
Think of this like a giant 3D map of the English language.
- On this map, words that are used together often are close to each other.
- "King" and "Queen" are neighbors. "Apple" and "Orange" are neighbors.
- The researchers plotted 169.9 million comments from Reddit's political section (r/politics) onto this map from 2012 to 2022.
They treated each conspiracy theory (like "Pizzagate" or "Illuminati") as a city on this map. They looked at the "suburbs" surrounding the city—the other words that always appear nearby. These suburbs define what the conspiracy theory actually means at that moment.
The Findings: How the Cities Evolved
The researchers watched these "conspiracy cities" over three different time periods (2012-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2022) and found four main ways they change:
1. The "Renovation" (Semantic Stability + Lexical Churn)
The Analogy: Imagine a house that keeps the exact same floor plan and purpose (a family home), but they completely replace the siding, the paint, and the furniture every few years.
The Reality: This happened with staged violence theories (like "Sandy Hook was fake").
- The Meaning: The core idea ("The government faked this tragedy") never changed.
- The Words: The specific names changed. In 2012, they talked about one school; in 2018, they talked about a different school. The vocabulary churned, but the meaning stayed rock solid.
2. The "Move" (Semantic Replacement)
The Analogy: Imagine a building that used to be a bakery. One day, the owners move out, and a new group moves in and turns it into a gym. The address (the name) is the same, but the purpose is totally different.
The Reality: This happened with political scandal theories (like "Emailgate").
- The Change: In the early days, "Emailgate" was a messy mix of many different complaints. Over time, it completely shifted its meaning to focus specifically on corruption within the Clinton campaign. The old meaning was replaced by a new, sharper one.
3. The "Expansion" (Semantic Fragmentation)
The Analogy: Imagine a single, large tree that starts growing many different branches. Each branch grows its own unique leaves, but they all still come from the same trunk.
The Reality: This happened with Elite Control theories (like "Illuminati" or "Deep State").
- The Change: These theories started as a general idea of "rich people controlling the world." Over time, they split into many different, specific stories. One branch became about "Satanic cults," another about "Aliens," and another about "QAnon." The core idea stayed, but the theory became a "super-conspiracy" that could absorb any new scary story.
4. The "Consolidation" (Semantic Defragmentation)
The Analogy: Imagine a messy room with toys scattered everywhere. Over time, someone cleans it up, putting all the blocks in one bin and all the dolls in another. The room becomes more organized.
The Reality: This happened with Science Denial theories (like "Flat Earth" or "Chemtrails").
- The Change: At first, these theories were scattered and messy. But during the pandemic, they all clumped together into a single, tight narrative: "The government is lying to us about science." The messy branches merged into one strong, unified trunk.
Why This Matters
The paper teaches us a valuable lesson: Don't be fooled by the words.
If you only track keywords, you might think a conspiracy theory is "new" just because people are using new words to describe it. Or, you might think an old theory is "dead" just because the vocabulary changed, even if the dangerous idea is still there.
By looking at the semantic structure (the shape of the idea) rather than just the lexicon (the list of words), we can see that:
- Some conspiracies are stubborn: They keep the same meaning but change their clothes.
- Some are chameleons: They completely change their meaning to fit the current political mood.
- Some are sponges: They soak up new ideas and grow larger.
The Takeaway
Conspiracy theories are like living organisms. They don't just sit still. They adapt. Sometimes they swap their skin (vocabulary) to survive, and sometimes they mutate their DNA (meaning) to fit a new environment. To understand them, we need to watch how they evolve, not just what they say.
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