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Assessing Risk and Economic Losses from Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle in the Americas

This study presents the first spatial risk assessment of the coconut rhinoceros beetle in the Americas following its 2025 detection in Mexico, identifying high-risk areas for surveillance and estimating potential annual economic losses between $3 billion and $8 billion to underscore the urgent need for proactive biosecurity measures.

Original authors: Sulav Paudel, Trevor A. Jackson, Jhony A. Benavides-Bolaños, Ilse A. Huerta-Arredondo, Wilson Vásquez-Castillo, John M. Kean

Published 2026-06-24

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CC BY 4.0

Original authors: Sulav Paudel, Trevor A. Jackson, Jhony A. Benavides-Bolaños, Ilse A. Huerta-Arredondo, Wilson Vásquez-Castillo, John M. Kean

Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ✨ This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer

Imagine the Americas as a massive, vibrant garden filled with coconut and oil palm trees. These trees are the backbone of local economies, providing food, oil, and jobs for millions of people. Now, imagine a new, destructive gardener has just arrived in this garden: the Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (CRB).

This beetle is a notorious "tree-eater" originally from Asia. It has already caused chaos in the Pacific islands, but in 2025, it was spotted for the first time in the Americas, specifically in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. This paper is like a high-tech weather forecast, but instead of predicting rain or storms, it predicts where this beetle is most likely to travel next and how much money it could cost us if it spreads.

Here is a simple breakdown of what the researchers found:

1. The "Where" and "How" (The Risk Map)

The researchers built a digital map to answer two big questions:

How likely is the beetle to get there? (Introduction)
How likely is it to survive and multiply once it arrives? (Establishment)

Think of the Introduction part like a busy airport and highway system. The beetle doesn't fly itself across the ocean; it "hitchhikes" on cargo ships, airplanes, and trucks. The map shows that areas near ports, airports, and busy roads are like open doors for the beetle. If you live near a major port or a highway connecting to Mexico, your "door" is wide open.

The Establishment part is about the beetle's comfort zone. The beetle needs two things to throw a party and have a family:

The Right Weather: It loves warm, humid, tropical climates (like the Caribbean and northern South America). It hates cold weather (like the southern US or southern South America), so those areas are "off-limits."
The Right Food: It needs coconut and oil palm trees. If an area has no palms, the beetle has nowhere to eat, so the risk drops to zero.

The Result: The map highlights "Red Zones" (high risk) in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, and parts of Brazil. These are the places where the beetle can easily hitch a ride and find a warm home with plenty of food.

2. The "How Much" (The Economic Bill)

The researchers asked a scary question: If we do nothing and the beetle takes over, how much money will we lose?

They ran three scenarios, like testing a car in different weather conditions:

The "Light Rain" Scenario (20% damage): If the beetle spreads a little bit, the Americas could lose about $3 billion a year.
The "Storm" Scenario (50% damage): If it spreads moderately, the loss jumps to nearly $8 billion a year.
The "Hurricane" Scenario (70% damage): If the beetle goes wild (similar to what happened in the Pacific), the loss could skyrocket to over $10 billion a year.

To put that in perspective, that's like wiping out the entire annual income of a small country, or losing the value of thousands of oil refineries.

3. The "What Now?" (The Action Plan)

The paper doesn't just point out the problem; it acts like a fire alarm. Because the beetle is already in Mexico, the researchers say we need to act immediately before it spreads further.

They suggest:

Setting up "Smoke Detectors": Placing special traps (pheromone traps) in the high-risk areas identified on their map to catch the beetles early.
Checking the "Luggage": Strictly inspecting cargo, shipping containers, and plants coming from infected areas to stop the beetle from hitching a ride.
Cleaning the "Nursery": Removing dead palm trees and rotting piles of organic matter, because that's where the beetles lay their eggs.

The Bottom Line

This study is a warning shot. It tells us that the Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle has found a foothold in the Americas. If we ignore it, it could turn our tropical gardens into a financial disaster zone, costing billions and destroying livelihoods. However, if we use their map to watch the "Red Zones" closely and act fast, we might be able to stop the beetle before it becomes a permanent, destructive resident.

Technical Summary: Assessing Risk and Economic Losses from Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle in the Americas

Problem Statement
The Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (Oryctes rhinoceros, CRB) is a destructive pest of coconut and oil palms, historically causing significant production losses in Asia and the Pacific. Following its spread across Pacific islands, CRB was reported for the first time in the Americas in 2025, with an established population detected in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. The Neotropical Americas, encompassing coastal and lowland regions from central Mexico to northern South America, possess climatic conditions and host availability (coconut and oil palm) suitable for CRB survival. Given the rapid expansion of oil palm plantations and the economic reliance on coconut production in the region, there is an urgent need to quantify the risk of further spread and estimate potential economic damages to inform biosecurity strategies.

Methodology
The study employs a spatially explicit risk assessment model to estimate the relative probability of CRB introduction and establishment across the Americas. The model operates at a 5 arcminute (~9.25 km) grid resolution and calculates a risk score ( $R$ ) by multiplying two primary components: Introduction Pressure ( $I$ ) and Establishment Potential ( $E$ ).

Introduction Pressure ( $I$ ): This component models human-mediated transport pathways, excluding natural dispersal. It is the sum of three weighted factors:
- Port_Proximity ( $P$ ): Reflects risk from seaports and airports, calculated using an exponential decay function based on distance and port size.
- Human_Density ( $H$ ): Represents risks associated with travel and mail, derived from log-transformed population density data.
- Road_Weight ( $D$ ): Represents commodity transport risks, calculated by multiplying road density by an Epicenter_Connectivity factor. This factor uses a universal visitation law of human mobility, where connectivity decreases as the inverse square of the distance from the current infestation epicenter (Nayarit, Mexico).
Establishment Potential ( $E$ ): This component models the likelihood of the beetle establishing a population once introduced. It is the product of:
- Palm_Cover ( $C$ ): A composite index of coconut and oil palm density (log-transformed and normalized).
- Climate_Suitability ( $S$ ): A continuous surface generated using the BIOCLIM algorithm (via the R package dismo) fitted to confirmed CRB presence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and projected against WorldClim v2.1 bioclimatic variables.

Grid cells with zero palm cover are assigned a final risk score of zero to avoid false positives. The study focuses on six major palm-producing countries (Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador) for detailed analysis.

Key Contributions and Results

Spatial Risk Mapping: The model identifies high-risk areas concentrated in humid tropical and subtropical regions, specifically coastal and lowland zones with high palm cover and human activity. High-risk zones are predicted across Central America, the Caribbean, and northern South America (including large parts of Brazil). Temperate regions in North and southern South America show negligible risk.
Country-Specific Vulnerability:
- Colombia and Ecuador: High-risk values are concentrated in coastal and lowland regions.
- Brazil: Shows widespread low-to-moderate risk, with higher risk patches in the north and Gulf coast.
- Mexico: Elevated risk is confined to southern and southeastern regions, with all top-ranked priority sites located there.
- Honduras and Guatemala: Display broader areas of moderate-to-high risk with distributed high-priority sites.
Economic Impact Estimation: Using 2022/2023 production data and market prices, the study estimates annual economic losses under three damage scenarios (20%, 50%, and 70% reduction in production value):
- Low Damage (20%): ~USD 3.1 billion.
- Medium Damage (50%): ~USD 7.8 billion.
- High Damage (70%): ~USD 10.9 billion.
  These figures represent direct crop losses and do not account for indirect impacts on tourism, landscaping, or cultural values.

Significance and Claims
The paper presents the first spatially explicit risk assessment of CRB across the Americas, integrating transport pathways with host and climatic suitability. The authors claim this analysis provides a critical, continent-wide view of vulnerability, identifying specific high-risk grid cells to guide surveillance and targeted interventions.

The study emphasizes the urgency of proactive biosecurity measures, citing the recent detection in Mexico as a catalyst for regional action. It argues that once CRB is locally established, the high economic value of the affected palm industries justifies investment in eradication, containment, or spread-slowing strategies similar to those used for other invasive pests. The authors highlight that without intervention, the region faces economic losses consistent with historical Pacific outbreaks, potentially undermining the emerging oil palm industry and regional livelihoods. The findings are intended to support early detection, rapid response, and the coordination of biosecurity protocols among national and regional stakeholders.

1. The "Where" and "How" (The Risk Map)

2. The "How Much" (The Economic Bill)

3. The "What Now?" (The Action Plan)

The Bottom Line

Technical Summary: Assessing Risk and Economic Losses from Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle in the Americas

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