The Politics of Reservation Utilisation: SC/ST College Seats and Government Jobs by Ruling Party in India, 2012–2022
This study finds that while cross-sectional data initially suggests a negative association between BJP governance and SC/ST reservation utilization, rigorous panel analysis and event studies reveal that this correlation is driven by regional confounding factors—specifically lower baseline literacy and administrative capacity in North and Central India—rather than the ruling party's identity, with state-level human capital and fiscal strength emerging as the true determinants of quota fulfillment.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Imagine India as a massive, bustling school with a very special rulebook. This rulebook, written into the country's constitution, says that for every 100 seats in government colleges and government jobs, a specific number must be saved for students and workers from communities that have faced historical hardship. Specifically, 15 spots are saved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 7.5 spots for Scheduled Tribes (ST). Think of these as "reserved tables" at a giant dinner party. The idea is that no matter how crowded the room gets, these tables are guaranteed to be there.
But here is the tricky part: just because a table is reserved doesn't mean someone is sitting in it. Sometimes, the chairs remain empty. This happens for two main reasons. First, there might not be enough qualified people from those communities who have finished their homework and are ready to sit down (a "demand" problem). Second, the people running the party might be too slow or disorganized to actually invite the right guests to the table (an "administrative" problem). For decades, people have wondered: Does the color of the party running the state government change how full these reserved tables get? Do some political teams fill the chairs better than others, or is it just about how many students are ready to eat?
This paper is a detective story that tries to solve that mystery. The author, Kunal Dhanda, looked at data from 20 major Indian states over 11 years (from 2012 to 2022). He checked two things: how many reserved college seats were actually filled, and how many reserved government jobs were actually taken. He compared these numbers against which political party was in charge—specifically looking at the BJP, the INC, and various regional parties.
The investigation started with a simple question: Is the ruling party the boss of how well these quotas work? At first glance, the numbers seemed to suggest a link. States run by the BJP appeared to have fewer filled seats compared to states run by other parties. It looked like the BJP team might be dropping the ball. However, the author didn't stop there. He realized that the states run by the BJP were often different from the others in other ways, too. They tended to be places where, historically, fewer people from these communities had finished high school, and the local governments had less money to run things efficiently.
To get the real answer, the author used a clever trick. He looked at what happened when a state switched teams. If a state that used to be run by one party suddenly elected the BJP, did the number of filled seats suddenly drop? The answer was a clear "no." When the same state changed its government, the number of filled seats stayed exactly the same. The "drop" seen in the first glance wasn't caused by the new party; it was caused by the state's long history of lower education levels and weaker administrative systems.
The study found that the two biggest factors deciding whether a reserved seat gets filled are:
- How many people in that community are already educated: If the community has a strong base of literacy (people who can read and write), more seats get filled. This is like having a team of players who have already practiced; they are ready to play.
- How much money the state has: Richer states have better systems to hire people and fill jobs. This is like having a well-funded sports team with good coaches and equipment.
The paper suggests that the political party in charge is actually a very minor player in this game. Whether the BJP, the INC, or a regional party is running the show, the number of filled seats doesn't change much. The only real exception is Tamil Nadu, a state that consistently fills almost all its reserved seats (over 90%). But the author notes this isn't because of one specific party; it's because Tamil Nadu has had a strong system for helping these communities for over 60 years, regardless of who is currently in charge.
So, the big takeaway is this: You can't blame the current political team for empty chairs if the players aren't ready to play or if the stadium is too poor to run the game. The paper suggests that to fix the problem of empty reserved seats, the focus shouldn't be on changing the government, but on building better schools and stronger local systems so that more people are ready to take their seats. The data shows that while the political party might get the blame, the real story is about education and money.
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